New Delhi de-hypes January summit

On the purpose of his visit, Vajpayee said: ‘‘Our desire is to improve trade relations with our neighbours.’’

This careful calibration of government reaction was meant to signal to Islamabad that New Delhi will ignore the critical rhetoric from the Pakistani leadership but will watch its deeds.

Under the circumstances, the government’s studied silence on Pakistan PM Jamali’s recent statement, that Pakistan will not give up on a ‘‘plebiscite in Kashmir’’, is significant. Jamali publicly contradicted General Musharraf, who only a few days before had emphasised that Islamabad had ‘‘left aside,’’ the UN resolutions to take things forward with India.

New Delhi, nevertheless, seems willing to let the critical statements ride for the moment. It has noted that the General has delivered on various people-to-people measures, such as in principle accepting the bus/train links, including across the Line of Control from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad.

Still, with Vajpayee accepting that the infiltration has come down, New Delhi wants to wait till the snows melt in the spring before making any major reciprocal moves. Such as reducing its own troops strength in the Kashmir valley.

It has now become clear that the Prime Minister will meet the General on a couple of occasions over January 4-6. The first time will be at the inaugural session of the SAARC summit, the second time at the dinner the General throws for all heads of state and government on January 5, the third time at the concluding session on January 6. Yet another opportunity arises out of the courtesy call every visiting leader makes on the host leader.

Meanwhile, as the SAARC Commerce secretaries met today in Islamabad to finalise a framework draft South Asian free trade zone agreement (SAFTA), the expectations are that three declarations will be signed at the summit. Firstly, the SAARC declaration, which will incorporate the region’s determination to fight terrorism (as well as an additional protocol on terrorism), a Social Charter, as well as the SAFTA agreement.

No formal bilateral declarations or agreements are expected on the India-Pakistan front, not only because New Delhi doesn’t want to detract attention from SAARC, but also because it doesn’t want ‘‘a repeat of the Agra fiasco.’’

That, in effect, may well become the motto of the India-Pakistan story in Islamabad. Neither side is particularly keen on taking up from Agra, when both India and Pakistan accused each other of destroying an agreement they had supposedly agreed upon.

On the other hand, the promise to start a composite dialogue process that could be a combination of the ‘‘Lahore declaration and what was agreed at Agra,’’ could likely emerge at Islamabad. Essentially, that would be a reiteration of resolving the Kashmir dispute, terrorism as well as peace & confidence-building measures, perhaps at the Foreign Secretary level.

While Islamabad would clearly like the political leadership from both sides—Prime Ministers or Foreign Ministers—to restart the dialogue, they also seem quite agreeable to restore the dialogue at the Foreign Secretary level.