North Korea may be geographically far away, but the series of developments climaxed by North Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT and announcement of restarting nuclear programme and missile tests has far reaching implications for India and its security. North Korea is believed to possess about two nuclear weapons, and would now be capable of producing four or more (plutonium-based) bombs this year. To start with, the events of the past three months re-emphasise the role of nuclear weapons for coercive political role as indeed we saw Pakistan trying to do on more than one occasion. Even in the face of unambiguous threats Washington is severely constrained in use of force against the ‘‘evil axis’’ state. And US options have been progressively narrowing due to short-term concessions to past proliferation as we have seen in the case of Pakistan. ‘‘What North Korea shows is that deterrence is working,’’ said Professor Joseph S. Nye Jr., former US Assistant Secretary of Defence last week. He added, ‘‘The only problem is that we (the US) are the ones who are being deterred.’’ Secondly, The axis of nuclear-missile proliferation is now clear and extends from Pakistan-China further to North Korea. It will remain a matter for study and speculation how much of North Korea’s strategic capabilities (like the 1,500-km ballistic missile transferred to Pakistan) came from China which (according to Pakistan government) earlier had supplied missiles directly to Pakistan. Pakistan’s nuclear weapon design had reportedly come from China and Dr. Samar Mubarakmand, the nuclear scientist in-charge of Chagai tests in May 1998, had stated one year later that they had tested a ‘‘nuclear device’’ in 1983. The nuclear test in Lop Nor in China’s nuclear test range at that time was attended by General Yakub Khan, the then foreign minister under Zia ul-Haq. Now evidence has emerged to indicate that Pakistan has provided the technology to North Korea to build nuclear bombs based on highly-enriched uranium technology. What direction could this cosy relationship move in future? Missile technology in North Korea and nuclear weapon technology in Pakistan have reached a certain level of autonomous capabilities that would allow them to proceed with minimal further assistance from any other source. Both N Korea and Pakistan are not party to NPT, and nor are they bound by any international treaty or agreement to stop them from proliferating these capabilities to third countries, and among themselves. Both have a record of proliferation to other countries. In a way their capabilities are complementary: N Korea stronger in ballistic missiles and plutonium extraction from spent fuel for bombs, and Pakistan stronger of the two in highly-enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Half-a-dozen missing nuclear scientists from Pakistan for the past three years could be in N Korea, or some newly emerging nuclear nation. A North Korean merchant ship quarantined in Kandla port a few years ago provided enough evidence of what was already going on. Only a few weeks ago NATO warships intercepted a North Korean consignment of ballistic missiles, which was later allowed to go its destination in Yemen. In fact, the deployment of missile defences would lead to further spread of nuclear-missile capabilities worldwide by countries seeking to oppose US hegemony. And Pakistan, seeing itself as a champion of the Islamic world has sought a role labelled ‘‘strategic defiance’’ by the then army chief General Aslam Beg. Of greater immediate concern to us would be the potential supply of plutonium to Pakistan for building smaller size warheads to be fitted on ballistic missiles. Pakistan has a small plutonium-based nuclear reactor (supplied by China) which is outside international safeguards. This would provide the fig leaf for accumulation of plutonium from other sources to expand the nuclear arsenal. Pakistan claims to be developing even longer-range (3,000-km plus) ballistic missiles (which would cover even Israel). But this could only be done with assistance from N Korea which has been engaged in building such a missile for some time and even tested one in 1998 across Japan.
