N-deal cynics, take note: for Australia uranium, China says yes to range of conditions

The delegation is here to further the conversation on Australian uranium sales to India between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Prime Minister John Howard who was here a few weeks ago.

Australian nuclear cooperation with India hinges on the change of nuclear rules by the US Congress and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group.

India’s ability to get this done quickly is being undermined by nuclear nit-pickers who have been arguing that India has not got legal equivalence with China in the historic deal with Washington. But Beijing has had no problem accepting a virtual nuclear separation plan and permanent safeguards—two issues that proved to be so contentious in the Indo-U.S. negotiations.

While China is focused like a laser beam on the “outcomes”—in this case a permanent lock on the lucrative Australian uranium—a section of the political establishment and bureaucracy in India is paralysed by quibbling over language and sequence.

China understands that without reliable access to natural uranium beyond its borders, its plans to increase nuclear power generation four fold in the coming decades will not be credible. As a result, it was eager to satisfy all Australian political demands on separation and safeguards under the agreement signed last month with Australia, the world’s second largest exporter of natural uranium.

As a nuclear weapon state under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, China is under no obligation to separate its military and civilian nuclear programmes. Yet, Beijing has agreed to set up a “Delineated Chinese Nuclear Fuel Cycle Program”, that would be eligible for Australian uranium under international safeguards.

These would include not only reactors, but also such fuel cycle facilities as enrichment, fuel fabrication and storage. Even research and demonstration projects, such as breeder and other experimental projects would come under the safeguards regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency if they were to use nuclear material of Australian origin.

Chinese reprocessing of Australian origin spent fuel into plutonium will be subject to special consent from Canberra. Diplomatic sources here say, Beijing has also promised to put some other facilities, which may never use Australian uranium, under international safeguards to build political confidence with Canberra.

As a consequence of this agreement, Beijing would put a much larger portion of its civilian nuclear programme under international safeguards.

When they put their facilities under international safeguards, nuclear weapon states reserve the right to withdraw them at will. But Beijing has now agreed to limit the “voluntary” nature of these arrangements for those facilities which use Australian uranium.

By ceding a say to the Australians in deciding whether a facility can be withdrawn from “voluntary safeguards”, Beijing has in effect agreed to permanent safeguards arrangements of the kind India plans to enter with the IAEA. Even more amazing has been the leeway Beijing has been willing to grant Canberra in the very procedure of applying safeguards. Under the agreement Australia will have the right to “cross-check reports” from China on the safeguarding of Australian origin nuclear material “for consistency with information from the IAEA and from other sources”.

The “other sources” here refer to Australian intelligence acquired from its own national technical means and from those of its allies like the United States. Even if the IAEA gives a clean chit to China on the implementation of safeguards, Australia will have a right to question it on the basis of its intelligence information.

Beijing and Canberra have also agreed that bilateral safeguards arrangements would have to kick in the event of IAEA safeguards being suspended for some reason or the other. If China were to be India’s benchmark for nuclear diplomacy, New Delhi should be getting off its haunches to quicken the pace of its safeguards negotiations with the IAEA and make sure that the US Congress quickly approves the nuclear deal.

“The delegation is here to further the conversation on Australian uranium sales to India between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Prime Minister John Howard who was here a few weeks ago. Australian nuclear cooperation with India hinges on the change of nuclear rules by the U.S. Congress and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group. India’s ability to get this done quickly is being undermined by what appears to be motivated political criticism.”