Monsoon wait not so grim, reservoirs are at a 4-yr high

But the increase is not uniform. Indus basin reservoirs have gained the maximum, 65.86 per cent over the 10-year average. Compared to 2004, the Indus basin is up 135 per cent.

However, the Ganga basin is down overall — a 31 per cent dip below the 10-year average. Yet this being an exceptionally good year, compared to 2004 even the Ganga basin is up by 99 per cent.

The increase is being attributed to good snowfall in winter. ‘‘The Bhakra, Ranjit Sagar and Ram Ganga reservoirs, which get snowmelt directly, are doing well,’’ said K D Sharma, director, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, ‘‘currently, the other snowfed rivers have more then the usual water. It’s about 10 to 15 per cent more than normal.’’

Pong and Bhakra — which are both snowfed and rainfed reservoirs — are doing well because of snowmelt, which started in the second week of April. Pong is 32 per cent above normal, Bhakra 35 per cent.

With snow still falling in the upper reaches, the impact will be felt for a long time. ‘‘This season the way snowfall is taking place, it will help for a longer period of time. The impact will be realised over years,’’ said Dr Mangala Rai, DG, Indian Council for Agriculture Research.

According to the Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB), the water levels in Bhakra and Pong are higher by 55 feet and 31 feet respectively compared to 2004. BBMB officials said that satellite images showed the snowfall in the catchment of the Sutlej river was good and the forecast for snowmelt run-off between April and June is for 17 lakh cusecs, double that in most recent summers. Even in the South, the Krishna, Cauvery and east-flowing rivers are doing better than in 2004.

CWC officials said the better performance of reservoirs was because of the concentrated rainfall in August 2004. This led to water levels shooting up. At one point in August 2004, the levels touched the 10-year average of 80 BCM of live storage.

The post-winter snowmelt was an additional bonus. To maintain similar levels next year, it is crucial, scientists point out, that there is good rainfall in July and August 2005 — as the monsoons unfurl across the country.

But water officials are happy for the moment. Among the bigger reservoirs only Orissa’s Ringali — which has live capacity of 3.43 BCM — is 45 per cent below the 2004 level.

‘‘The overall picture is satisfactory. The starting is good. But if the rainfall is not good in June than there will be problems,’’ said a Water Resources Ministry official, ‘‘there is availability of water now.’’

The level in the reservoirs is already starting to fall as this is the peak period of utilisation for power and drinking water. In the coming months more water will be needed for irrigation with sowing of rice, cotton, sugarcane set to start.