The monsoon’s well and truly lost in the Himalayan foothills. If last week’s grim forecast was a monsoon lull until July 15, it just got worse today: forecasters say even if monsoon revives after July 15, it won’t be a ‘‘classical revival’’ which, simply put, means weak rains in some parts of north India. These inputs were provided today to the crop weather watch group by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). This was followed by another presentation to Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar and Science and Technology minister Kapil Sibal. Worried that these could be the first signs of drought in some areas, the Cabinet Secretary has called a meeting tomorrow of all secretaries concerned to review the monsoon situation. The Prime Minister has already asked for a plan on the worst-case scenario. He has asked for buffer stock figures and looked at the policy of allowing private traders to procure grain from the open market for exports. With today’s prediction, alarm bells have started ringing for areas that have not had rains for the last three weeks: Telangana, Rayalseema, Vidarbha, western Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan. For stressed areas Telangana and Vidarbha, there’s no hope because the rains are long overdue and sowing, already damaged, cannot be salvaged. The only change since last week is that sporadic rains have marginally improved the situation in Rayalseema and eastern Uttar Pradesh. States like Punjab and Haryana also received some rainfall last week and their widespread irrigation system makes the situation different from the other affected states. ‘‘We don’t want to be caught napping like 2002. We have sent teams to all these states and they are expected to return any day now. Contingency measures will be drawn up for these areas,’’ said Radha Singh, secretary, Ministry of Agriculture. Contingency plans would include alternate cropping patterns, food for work programmes and increased supply in seeds. The Met department had confidently predicted a normal monsoon but after 121 per cent of the Long Period Average at the end of third week, the average for the entire country has now dipped to 90 per cent. Of the 36 Met sub-divisions, 19 are in the deficient category. Experts have said that the low pressure area over Bay of Bengal that is at mid-level now may start descending slowly by July 16. Only when it descends and moves inland will the monsoon set in again. So until this week-end, the forecast is only isolated rains over north west India and the foothills of the Himalayas. Met conditions are similar to what happened in 2002 which witnessed the worst drought in 100 years. That year too, the monsoon trough lay in the foothills of the Himalayas and never moved. During a normal monsoon, there is a permanent trough over Pakistan and North West India and a low pressure area over Bay of Bengal. The cropping situation is not encouraging in areas that are solely dependent on rain. ‘‘Some sporadic rains over last week helped sow soyabeans in the area,’’ said C D Mayee, agriculture commissioner. ‘‘But for us, it is wait and watch.’’ Only 20 per cent soyabean has been sown in the Malwa region but farmers have been asked to wait. In the south, cotton and maize are under severe stress. Area covered by sowing for most crops, including sugarcane, rice and oilseeds, is below target. Many farmers have begun to replough fields in the absence or shortage of water and the condition of the sown crop is ‘‘not good.’’ While paddy acreage in Uttar Pradesh is expected to fall short of the earlier target by 80,000 hectares, all major oilseed producing states too are expecting a fall in yield and and output. Area covered so far in oilseeds was 50.6 lakh hectares, nearly a million hectares less than 59.56 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year. The more worrying part is that nearly one-third of the area under oilseeds is yet to be sown with bulk of the sowing originally scheduled for July. For irrigated states like Punjab and Haryana, it is the cost of production that is likely to go up.
