The murmurs have reached a crescendo on the demand to re-value the Chinese yuan. The reason for this outcry is simple: The US believes that China has relied on an under-valued yuan to gain an unfair export advantage, which has cost the US its economic growth and jobs. Everybody from US President George W. Bush to US Treasury Secretary John Snow to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has called for a re-valuation of the yuan. Nobody is quite sure by how much the yuan is under-valued. Estimates range from 15 to 40 per cent.
John Snow’s recent visit to China did not do much to convince the Chinese to relinquish their peg of 8.28 yuan to the US dollar. In retaliation the US Congress is threatening to pass a bill which will impose an extra 27.5 per cent tariff on Chinese imports if mainland officials do not respond ‘satisfactorily’ to the US demand for a yuan re-valuation within 180 days.
The statistics that are worrying the US are: The loss of 2.6 million US manufacturing jobs since March 2001. China’s $100 billion trade surplus with the US last year, which makes China America’s third-largest trading partner. China’s exports of $125 billion to the US, accounting for 9.3 per cent of all US imports. The fact, that if China’s exports to the US continue growing at the current rate of 20 per cent per annum, the US trade deficit with China would reach $330 billion in the next five years.
The rest of the world, and certainly China, knows that America’s strident demands are more a political rather than an economic manoeuvre. In the run-up to next year’s presidential elections the US is trying to politicise the yuan issue and make it the scapegoat for the poor performance of the US economy. The fundamental fact remains that even a 40 per cent appreciation of the yuan will not be able to cover the manufacturing wage differential of almost $28,000 between the two countries. An average Chinese factory worker earns $1,182 a year versus the US counterpart’s $29,000. The low-end manufacturing jobs that have left the US are gone for good.
China has defended its fixed exchange rate policy by arguing that, especially in the current economic climate, a stable yuan benefits not only China but the region and the rest of the world. Furthermore it has emphasised that a country’s exchange rate policy should be determined by the nation’s own economic situation and balance of payments, and not international opinions.