Modi’s moment of truth

Nor is it a routine case of anti-incumbency, or more appropriately a punishment for mis-governance. True, the shine of Vibrant Gujarat wears thin once you step away from the urban middle class colonies. Yes, the government has suppressed information on farmers’ suicides and the reality of development is at some distance from Modispeak. Yet the claims of the Gujarat government on development are not altogether false. A Dalit Congress Sarpanch in a remote village would concede that electricity, education and health facilities have gotten better in the last five years. This confirms the impression of popular approval of the government in the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar-CSDS survey held last month.

This is not a popular rejection of Narendra Modi either. Unlike Om Prakash Chautala before he was defeated, the mention of Modi’s name does not invite disgust. Ordinary people speak of him with respect, even admiration. Not even die-hard Congress supporters can name a Congress leader who can match Modi. He is undoubtedly the most popular leader in the state today as he responds to an average Gujarati’s wish for a strong and decisive leadership. But unlike 2002, people do not start talking about Modi the moment you start talking politics. This election is not about Modi.

Democracy’s revenge is taking an unusual and perhaps unholy form in this election. Modi’s success depended upon shutting down the routine and normal business of politics, on not having to share power with anyone. He managed to close down the routine patronage system, denying rewards even to organisations of the Sangh parivar. He bypassed party organisation and politicians by working through bureaucrats and appealing directly to the people. MLAs and even senior state level leaders of his party could not get an appointment with him. He refused to pay any attention not just to the opposition, but also to media and civil society. He has been mindful of caste and local equations, but planned the election in such a way that these messy factors should not become overriding.

The last three assembly elections in the state, all of which the BJP won comfortably, were extra-ordinary elections around one over-riding emotive issue: Ayodhya Mandir in 1995, Hajuria-Khajuria split in 1998 and the post-Godhra massacre in 2002. This election was to be about Gujarati asmita, about a state that has discovered its identity and vibrancy, thanks to Modi. In short this election was to be a plebiscite on Modi.

This is not how it has turned out. While Modi could tame the opposition and shut up his critics, he could not shut down democratic politics. This election is about the resurfacing of normal politics. The quotidian, the mundane, the local and the parochial stuff of politics refused to die, thus forcing Modi to play on a turning pitch that he is not comfortable with. He cannot win this election in one, single, grand masterstroke. He has to win it bit by bit, constituency by constituency. This may well prove the nemesis of Narendra Modi.

The resurgence of normal politics takes many forms. Rebellion within the BJP is just one of those forms. Frankly, the rebellion appears to have been over-rated by the media. The rebels may have been important figures within the BJP, but their spoiler value is limited. Even Keshubhai Patel’s influence is limited to a section of Leuva Patels of Saurashtra. The Sangh Parivar’s protest is less visible but at least of as much consequence. The ordinary RSS workers that we spoke to would like the BJP to win, but would ideally want Modi to command a substantially reduced majority so that he does not lose his head.

Another form is the rise of media, and not just the Delhi-based English and secular media, as counter-establishment. This has prevented Modi from setting the agenda of elections. This election is not about the macro economic achievements of Gujarat. Those achievement might impress the middle class urban Gujarati but have very little value outside this charmed circle. Ordinary people wish to see what these have meant in their own lives. Speak to any poor Gujarati in rural or urban areas about these achievements and he will narrate to you the tale of his woes in obtaining the basic necessities of life. Modi’s well cultivated aura of omniscience and omnipotence begins to boomerang here: the voters hold him responsible for everything, from price rise and lack of employment to agrarian crisis, the state of BPL card and having to pay electricity bills.

Finally, caste-community equations have resurfaced in a much stronger way than before, defying all attempts to subsume these under an overarching Hindu identity. Travelling from constituency to constituency, we found ourselves doing a fresh arithmetic of the kind we did only in Bihar or Haryana. It is not just the dominant Rajputs and Patels and the familiar Dalits and Muslims. The rising political aspirations of caste groups like Ahirs and various sub-groups of Kolis are making their presence felt. It is not that the BJP has not done its caste arithmetic carefully or that its choice of candidates is indifferent. It is just that this is not BJP’s game.

One doesn’t know what this game’s final outcome will be. But we do know that for all its flaws, normal politics is perhaps the best guarantee against the dark side of democracy that Gujarat has witnessed.

The writer is Senior Fellow, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies