Moderate, once more

This could be a tactical withdrawal to gain greater legitimacy and keep the goodwill of its allies. The moot question, however, is the extent to which the dynamics of a process, even a tactical one, can change the character of the BJP, now that it has found another route to power.

When cadre based parties open their doors for electoral or coalitional support, their edges tend to be rounded off. Marxist parties in India have become more like liberal democratic setups, unable to retain their defining features.

There are several factors which could pull the BJP away from the emotive issues. A powerful middle class is emerging in the country both in urban centres and in rural India, proud to be Hindu but squeamish about extremism of the kind that erupted in Gujarat. Television has created its own aspirational revolution. India is a young nation today, and the ‘‘feel good’’ factor touted by the BJP is another way of acknowledging the primacy of economics as a political issue.

There is also the international context no mainstream party can ignore. World opinion will not take kindly to another Gujarat. International pressure was one reason the BJP finally toned down in Gujarat.

The BJP and the Sangh are reaching out to a section of the Muslims, facilitating a dialogue between the two communities, and this must be watched carefully. There is an opinion in the ‘parivar’ that if the BJP can win over 10 per cent of the Muslim vote, it will be home and dry.

The logic of coalitions remains. As long as the BJP is in partnership with other parties, it will have to let go of its ‘‘core’’ issues. As it is, two out of three of its core issues — Article 370 and Ayodhya — may become redundant if there is a breakthrough with Pakistan and there is an out of court settlement on the temple, and the BJP is making serious efforts on both fronts. A solution to Kashmir is likely to lead to greater autonomy for the state, and not the other way round.

The BJP needs alliances to come to power and alliances mean putting a lid on its growth in states where it has partners. The party’s growth curve might have been sharper in states like Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, had it not aligned with regional groups.

After over 5 years in power, BJP leaders are aware that there is a logic of power in a representative democracy. There is growing realisation in the party that even if it were to come to power on its own, some of its ‘‘core’’ concerns must remain dormant because of the compulsions of ruling — and holding together — a country as diverse as India.

Certainly, there is a flip side to this argument. People are not convinced that the BJP will act responsibly out of power. Had Sonia Gandhi been in the saddle, trying for a breakthrough with Pakistan, would the BJP have lent its support? Or would it have projected the process as a sell out?

The RSS has not given up its goal of a Hindu Rashtra. Nor is the BJP going to sever its links with the Sangh. The party relies heavily on the Sangh cadre at poll time, and one of the reasons for the party’s runaway success in recent elections was the wholehearted way in which the RSS rank and file came out in support of the BJP — unlike the 1999 polls.

The Sangh may look upon the journey as a Long March, but it too has to operate in a dynamic situation. It knows it can survive and grow only when the BJP is in power. It has spread its wings in the educational and cultural fields. But it has had to accept the shelving of ‘‘swadeshi’’.

Whether the BJP will rely on development or Hindutva in the future will depend on many variables — the BJP leadership, Sangh leadership, how other parties address the concerns of the majority community, the global scenario. The Bharatiya Jan Sangh had enjoyed a certain autonomy under the leadership of its founder Shyama Prasad Mookerji, but after his death the RSS strengthened its hold over the party. One of Vajpayee’s achievements has been the way he has managed to set his own agenda without antagonising the RSS.

One thing is clear. Under Vajpayee, a party on crutches has found its feet.