Minor vote swings clinch fate

For example, in the general elections last year, the BJP had polled 6.33 per cent more than its rival Congress — almost four per cent more than what the former could get this time around. However, the number of seats it could gain thattime in addition to this year’s was just one. The Congress thus notched up 10 seats, which was one-third of what the BJP got.

In the 1996 election, the BJP polled 10.3 per cent votes more than the Congress, but could get only 27 of the 40 seats. The huge swing against the Congress notwithstanding, the party won eight seats.

In 1991, it was the Congress which had more number of seats from the state. The party finished first in 27 Lok Sabha constituencies though got only 3.54 per cent of votes more than the BJP. The BJP cornered 12 seats and the BSP one.

Twenty-seven was the total number of seats for the biggest party in Madhya Pradesh in the 1989 elections as well, that time it was the BJP. A gain of just 1.94 per cent votes more than the Congress did the trick.

The vacillating swing-seat relation has not been confined to the Lok Sabha elections. The last three Assembly elections have also been witnessing similar swings between the two parties.