Middle East cauldron

The diplomatic blitz which sent the United Nation’s Kofi Annan, the European Union’s Javier Solana, Russia’s Ivan Ivanovich and Britain’s Robin Cook to West Asia, may yet bring Ehud Barak, Israel’s prime minister, and Yasser Arafat, chairman of the Palestinian Authority, together at a summit in Sharm-al-Sheikh in Egypt. Such a meeting is now envisaged not as the product of the restoration of calm in the region but as perhaps the only way left to bring about calm. The first essential is to damp down tensions. It is also overwhelmingly important for Israelis and Palestinians to be seen to be sitting across a table in order to reaffirm faith in negotiated solutions and to reject violence as a means. Even symbolic reaffirmation of the peace process seems almost too much to hope for after the terrible beating it has taken during these last bloody days in Israel and the West Bank and Gaza. But there are no other options.

Because passions are inflamed at home, a circuitous route could be used at Sharm-al-Sheikh — setting up a fact-finding commission to go into the causes of the recent violence, for example. Eventually and sooner, rather than later, both sides have to find their way back to Oslo, the Israelis in order to be able to live within secure borders and the Palestinians in order to establish their own state. Meanwhile it is necessary to tell all those seeking to exploit the current situation to stay out. Syria should be told to rein in Hizbollah activities on the border of Israel and Lebanon; and Lebanon to put more of its own troops on the border to maintain peace. A Sharm-al-Sheikh summit will pre-empt and take the sting out of the Arab summit in Cairo scheduled for the 21st of this month. The Arabs could still go ahead, of course, but it will be a show of solidarity and purpose by the crowned heads of West Asia to guard against their own people directing their anger at them. Even with so much hanging on aBarak-Arafat summit, it will still take enormous courage and statesmanship on their part and strenuous diplomatic effort for it to actually materialise.

Dark clouds still hang heavily over the region. An outbreak of violence in the West Bank or Gaza at any stage could wreck whatever progress diplomacy is achieving, worsen tensions in the region and the economic outlook in many parts of the world. Much depends on Yasser Arafat and what he is willing and able to do. He must realise that the violent demonstrations, which cannot be explained as expressions of spontaneous popular anger, are self-defeating. Neither the sufferings of the people, the large number of deaths and injuries, nor the mobs running amok, lynching prisoners and demolishing holy sites, have furthered the Palestinian cause. On the contrary, questions are raised about the objectives of the Palestinian leadership and its ability to assert its authority. If Arafat wants to douse fires, permitting religious leaders to fan the flames and releasing Hamas suicide bombers from prison are not the best way to do it. Ending this cycle of violence and getting back to the table may be the toughest testArafat has ever faced. He cannot afford to fail.