Even before the echoes of Nawaz Sharif's words at the United Nations have faded, his military commanders have stepped up tension on the Jammu and Kashmir border. If Pakistan's Prime Minister meant what he said when he urged more joint efforts by India and Pakistan to ensure peace and stability in the region, he really ought to pay closer attention to what is happening in the Kargil sector. Since last April Pakistani troops have made what look like determined attempts to provoke India. The latest provocation consisted of firing on Kargil town which resulted in a large number of civilian deaths and damage to a mosque and hospital. What tactical military objective is served by such insensate violence is difficult to see. If the intention is to disrupt Indian Army supply lines, Pakistani commanders grossly underestimate their adversary's capabilities. As for using mayhem in Kargil as a cover for massing a large body of infiltrators and transferring them across the border, such a plan ignores the certainty of a very hostile reception from the people targeted by Pakistani guns and the fact that Indian authorities are well prepared to deal with these kinds of incursions.Looking for a political motive proves more fruitful. In light of there being no justification of any kind for the escalation of firing from across the border in August and Tuesday's incident which was even more reckless because civilians were targeted, the strong assumption must be that some sections of Pakistan's military establishment are not in favour of the thaw in Indo-Pak relations. Raising the stakes on the border by provoking strong Indian Army retaliation would be calculated to arouse popular sentiment in both countries and set back the tentative Indo-Pak dialogue. In this respect, these elements in Pakistan would be at odds with the political leadership which has indicated its willingness to stay on course.Obviously India cannot allow outrages like the one in Kargil town to go unanswered. New Delhi's first response, quite rightly, has been to try and contain the tension. The Foreign Secretary has summoned Pakistan's envoy to lodge a protest and ask for an explanation. Whether diplomatic efforts will be sufficient to bring about restraint among Pakistani commanders on the border must remain in doubt. New Delhi may well have to seek clarifications at the political level in order to determine the degree of disjunction between political and military intentions in Pakistan. If Nawaz Sharif is also looking to defuse tensions, he must know that fire-breathing speeches at home or abroad do nothing to improve the climate. Not only does vituperation on India sit ill with his professed interest in furthering peace, it gives comfort to hardliners in his country and makes it more difficult for him to edge nearer moderate and rational policies. For the same reason, New Delhi should seek a measured response to Pakistani provocations on the border even while making it clear that incidents like the one in Kargil cannot and will not be tolerated.
