What are the implications of what happened at Kademain, north of Baghdad? First, a few basic facts about Kademain. It is the resting place of Imam Musa Kazim, the seventh Imam of Shiaism’s twelve Imams. Basically, Shias and Sunnis both accept Imam Ali’s superior place in the Muslim hierarchy. Shias give him primacy, second only to prophet Mohammad, for his learning and leadership. Sunnis place him along with the Prophet’s other three companions. He was also the Prophet’s cousin as well as son-in-law. His shrine at Najaf is the center of global Shiaism, and seat of Ayatullah Sistani. Imam Hasan, his eldest son, is buried in Medina along with three other Imams. Imam Hussain, Ali’s youngest son, was martyred in the epic battle of Karbala. His shrine in Karbala was the scene of bomb blasts on the last day of Moharram two years ago.Kademain would actually be Kazmain in its Urdu accent, deriving its name from Imam Musa Kazim. The shrine of the 9th Imam Mohammad Taqi is also in Kademain. The shrine of the eighth Imam Ali Raza, is in Mashod, Iran. The remaining three Imams have their resting place in Samara.Najaf, Karbala, Kademain and Samara are cities and shrines in Iraq which rank high as pilgrim destinations for the world’s Muslims, particularly Shias. Any harm to these shrines would enrage the world’s Shias. And yet, there have been US troop movements in all these cities, even entering the shrines, shrapnel grazing the outer walls or bombs knocking down a tower in Samara. And there has been no Shia retaliation.The main street leading to the shrine in Karbala, during Moharram two years ago, was littered with bleeding pilgrims after serial bomb blasts. And yet no reaction. This is eerie. The mosque in Kufa, next to Najaf, where Imam Ali prayed, sprayed with light arms fire, US troops in occupation of the mosque for a period. And, no reaction.The irony is that Americans had to lean on Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr and the late Ayatullah Baqar al Hakim to mobilise some crowds for TV cameras after Saddam Hussein’s statue was pulled down at Firdous Square on April 9, 2003. That event was a stage managed lie. There were no crowds to celebrate Saddam’s statue being defiled. Iraqi Sunnis and Shias may have hated Saddam. But no Arab likes to see a fellow Arab humiliated by foreigners.After this initial romance, the US clashed with Moqtada Sadr’s Mahdi militia. Sadr’s grievances were with the rival Shia clergy in Najaf, many of whom had escaped Saddam’s excesses because they lived in exile. Their return after Saddam’s fall threatened Sadr’s position. In the end, the towering stature of Ayatullah Sistani prevailed. Sadr was contained.When I visited Najaf last year, some clerics explained to me Sistani’s broad strategy. Yes, the Shias were relieved at Saddam’s fall, but Saddam was still in US hands. That drama is yet to be finally played out. And, US troops were in the country. The people had to be on their guard when the ‘‘enemy’’ has disproportionate fire power.The situation was custom made to follow Imam Ali’s teachings: patience and forbearance. Since Iraq’s majority Shias were free of the Baathist yoke after decades, any overt Iranian interest in Iraq would raise the spectre of Arab versus Ajam, Arabic versus Farsi, Sistani said. Little wonder Iran has steered clear of playing on pan-Shia affiliations. In fact, Iranians have developed an understanding with the Americans that they would not interfere in theatres where the US is directly involved — Iraq, Afghanistan, Baluchistan and the Hizbullah in Lebanon. The crisis the US faces in Iraq, with the American people turning against the war, supercedes its non-proliferation concern. US intelligence now believes Iran could be at least a decade away from having a threatening capability. In other words, the nuclear issue will be brought forward only after Iraq looks manageable.A cardinal principle Sistani has followed since the US occupation is to maintain contact with Sunni leaders. He says Shias will be provoked, even killed in large numbers, but if they react with violence, they will have walked into the enemy’s trap. This is why all the TV anchors speculating on a possible civil war following the stampede which killed over a 1000 mourners at the shrine in Kademain, had no idea of ground realities. Worse provocations have been overlooked by the leadership in Najaf.In the past year, Shias traveling to Karbala from Baghdad have been waylaid and murdered in what has come to be known as the triangle of death — Mahmudiya, Latifiya, Yusufia. Najaf is convinced the culprits are not Iraqi Sunnis, but troublemakers from abroad. Civil war conditions are something Sistani is determined to prevent. ‘‘The endurer does not miss success even though it may take a long time’’, his mentor, Ali wrote. Those around Sistani often quote this line.
