K’taka: Parties weigh options, numbers behind closed doors

While the BJP is watching power slipping from its fingers, ironically, as far as numbers in the House go, it holds the maximum seats at 79. The JD(S) strength is the lowest: 58. The Congress has 65 seats, apart from 10 dissidents who are believed to owe allegiance to the party. The magic figure to be in power in the 224-member Assembly is of course 113. A look at the key players:

Deve Gowda, JD(S)

As the national president of the Janata Dal (Secular), the former PM holds several crucial cards, all of which he is playing close to his chest. He now controls the 48 JD(S) MLAs still loyal to the party, including his son and Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy. This is unlike February 2006, when the JD(S) MLAs and Kumaraswamy seemingly took the initiative to ally with the BJP against Gowda’s wishes.

And Gowda has a key weapon to make the MLAs toe his line of thinking: a disqualification complaint filed against the MLAs for breaking rank, and the party’s “secular” ideology, when they allied with the BJP. This complaint is due to come up before Gowda-nominated Assembly Speaker Krishna on October 6.

The former PM has one eye on national politics and is keen to play a role in Delhi again. In this context he is keen to restore his secular image with old friends like the Left, say sources. In case he is persuaded to hand over power, may use disqualification of MLAs as an excuse to pull out of alliance.

If that doesn’t work, the JD(S) president is said to have a list of wrongdoings of BJP ministers. The party has also told the BJP that many IAS officers don’t want to function under Yediyurappa. Last but not the least, analysts say Gowda may not be averse to exploring his chances with the Congress.

H D Kumaraswamy

While the Chief Minister has shown reluctance to hand over power, he has been sending mixed signals. Apart from the weight of his father behind him, Kumaraswamy can count on several other factors. He has had a popular tenure as CM and, contrary to expectations, created a presence for the JD(S) in new parts of the state, reflected in the recent urban local body polls. This popularity may also be the reason Kumaraswamy is in two minds over transferring power to the BJP. He reportedly doesn’t want to be singled out for not honouring an agreement.

Yediyurappa, BJP

Though desperate for power the BJP has come around to the belief that even emerging as the wronged party may pay off for it, especially in an election. It also realises that the JD(S) could transfer power briefly and then withdraw support on some pretext. However, the BJP’s headache is the differences within the party, including over Yediyurappa as CM. Many ministers and MLAs are opposed to his autocratic style.

The Congress

The Congress is reluctant to join hands with the JD(S) given that the latter ditched it to align with the BJP. “We are waiting and watching. We do not have any role at the moment,” Congress spokesperson Jayanti Natarajan said at a press meet in New Delhi. But the instructions from the centre are unequivocal: do anything to keep the BJP out. But again, it is also a divided house.