As the political drama surrounding the People’s Democratic Party’s threat to walk out of Congress-led coalition government on the issue of demilitarising J&K unfolds, it raises several questions. But the survival of the state government is not among them. In case the PDP does withdraw support to Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad’s government, that will not immediately lead to its fall. The numbers may not favour the Congress as the coalition needs the PDP’s 18 legislators to remain in a majority; but the largest opposition party in J&K — the National Conference with 25 legislators — is sure to abstain from a no-confidence vote and allow Azad to run a minority government.Nevertheless, if the Centre decides to reject PDP’s demand for demilitarisation outright, the issue will have much more significant consequences than the fall of a state government. For one, it will jeopardise the credibility of the Centre’s much publicised peace efforts after the 2002 assembly elections, which had won New Delhi considerable goodwill internationally. The PDP’s demand is in fact in sync with the Centre’s Kashmir policy, as it has evolved over the past five years. Its focus has been on pushing ahead with confidence building measures. PDP’s demand for demilitarisation may be a mere political gimmick to drum up electoral support, but its argument is valid. The issue does touch the hearts and minds of ordinary people here. In fact, the demand for demilitarisation is also at the core of the politics of the separatist moderates led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq. PDP’s demand has two aspects. It maintains that the security situation has substantially improved so there is no need for army intervention any longer. It cites official data on a substantial drop in the number of militants operating in the state and a high voter turn-out in the recent by-elections in rural north Kashmir as proof that considerable normalcy has returned. This evidence, the PDP argues, demands a change in the Centre’s approach. The government has stated that there are only 1,000 to 1,200 militants operating in the state. It has also claimed that there was a 77 per cent turn-out in the recent by-elections in Rafiabad, a one-time militant bastion — a huge jump, considering the 2 per cent turn-out last time. If these figures are right, then there is a clear argument to be made for withdrawing the army, which was called in to assist the local administration only when J&K Police and Central Reserve Police Force had failed to curtail violence in the early 1990s. The PDP also argues that the withdrawal of the Armed Forces will prove to be a major confidence building measure. It will not only scale down the intensity of the conflict substantially but also put the responsibility of security management on the elected local administration. It cites the example of Srinagar city, where security has been successfully handled by the local police and paramilitary forces for a long time now. The Centre’s view is that the time is not ripe to withdraw troops and the J&K Congress, especially Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, dismisses the PDP’s stance as a political stunt. This lack of even an acknowledgement of the importance of this issue — which definitely transcends vote-bank politics in the Valley — could lead to the political situation getting out of hand in J&K. The party has also demanded that the army vacate land and property, both government and civilian, which it had taken over without authorisation. Although the army denies this charge, the figures provided by the Azad government to the state assembly give credibility to PDP’s charge. According to the J&K government, the army has unauthorisedly occupied 3,71,655 kanals of the 6,81,839 kanals it now occupies. The largest chunk in Leh — a region unaffected by militancy.Government records show that the army has also taken over 11,000 kanals of apple orchards since 1990. This issue has a resonance, because the apple industry is central to the state’s economy. Apart from this, the J&K government records reveal that 30 school buildings are also in the possession of the troops in Valley alone. The issue of the army’s takeover of an agriculture farm run by the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences (SKUAST) at Mansbal in north Kashmir — where the 3 Sector RR headquarters is located and where an airfield is soon to be built — is also contentious. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has indicated in a recent letter to former chief minister, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, that the issue needs to be taken very seriously. However, it is unlikely that the UPA will concede to the PDP’s demands when the UP polls are round the corner. It cannot of course be disputed that the PDP is racking up these contentious issues with an eye on the J&K assembly polls. But Kashmiris are now increasingly raising an important question: how long will votebank politics determine the contours of the Centre’s Kashmir policy?
