Bihar has been the laboratory of Indian politics. Mahatma Gandhi experimented with satyagraha from the dusty village of Champaran. Decades later, his follower, Jayaprakash Narayan, started his agitation from Patna against Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s authoritarian rule. And Laloo Prasad Yadav inaugurated in Bihar the pernicious idea of combining jaat (caste) with dharam (religion) for electoral gain. This may be comparing the sublime to the ridiculous, because while the Mahatma and JP brought out the best in Biharis, Laloo has created a wedge between the upper and lower castes on the one hand and Hindus and Muslims on the other. The Champaran satyagraha was not a success. JP was able to defeat Mrs Gandhi but squabbling in the Janata Party broke up the government within three years. Laloo’s formula, however detestable, sustained his rule for 15 years. I do not know what lessons one can learn, but it indicates the debasement of society, the biggest contribution to which is by tainted politicians like Laloo. Yet, the spell he seems to have cast on the electorate by projecting himself as what he is not, is subsiding. In the last state election, the disenchantment of the people was clear and they reduced his Rashtriya Janata Dal to a minority. New Delhi’s specially chosen governor, Buta Singh, came to Laloo’s rescue and dissolved the assembly on questionable grounds — the case now awaits the Supreme Court’s judgment. A verdict against the dissolution of the assembly will create havoc because it will mean infusing life into 243 members, revive the old House and cancel the election. Laloo still remains the main contender. His dubious record has not stood in the way of the Congress and CPM rallying behind him. The two parties do not count for much in the state. But they expect to win more seats through Laloo’s support. For reasons best known to the party, the Congress has come to believe that the outcome of Bihar elections is going to affect the fortunes of the government at New Delhi. It is possible that Laloo himself has spread such an impression. In this way, he can milk the central government whenever he likes and to whatever extent. In fact, he has already been doing so. The fate of Ram Vilas Paswan, a dalit leader in the Manmohan Singh government, is there for all to see. His only crime is that he dared to fight against Laloo, who was once his ally. Paswan’s allegation that Bihar has not moved an inch forward in Laloo’s 15-year-rule is not wrong. But Paswan’s drawback is that he has only four members in Lok Sabha as compared to Laloo’s 24. As for the CPM, it has a limited base in the state. But it seems to have decided that Laloo is its best bet, whatever his reputation. The party is not oblivious to Bihar’s poor performance under Laloo but it is willing to ignore that for electoral gain. It is, however, correct when it says that Laloo will win if the secular vote does not split. But it has already split. A leftist party, the CPI, which has a larger following in the state than the CPM, has parted company with the Congress and the CPM. The CPI feels that every sin cannot be forgiven in the name of secularism. It has come to the conclusion that Laloo, if re-elected, will remain Laloo, criminalising politics and siphoning off development money to dubious projects and his own men. The people’s plight will not change. Ultimately, it depends on Laloo’s magic and the various caste combinations he has managed to forge. Something that goes in his favour is that he has not allowed a communal riot to take place in Bihar. Muslims have felt safe during his regime, even though they have progressed little economically. The Yadavs stand solidly behind him. Some had left him in the last election but they have appear to have come back this time in the name of caste solidarity. The upper castes are not happy. Their experience is that Laloo does not give them any protection and that they must depend on their own senas like the Ranbir Sena. The last time, the upper castes voted against Laloo and they are determined do so again, although their sympathies lie with the Congress. Their predicament is that they cannot support the combination of backward castes and Muslims that Laloo leads. The anti-Laloo front led by Nitish Kumar has the advantage of having the upper castes and the backwards on the same platform. But not all the upper castes and backward castes are with him. The real handicap of Nitish Kumar is his alliance with the BJP which is unacceptable to the Muslims. They constitute nearly 12 per cent of the state’s electorate. The dark horse may well be the extreme Left. The assessment of its leader, Dipankar Bhattacharya, is: ‘‘Post-Mandal, Laloo Yadav arrived (in 1990). In the first few years he gave out all the rhetoric, paid lip service to the social churning and the people had real expectations from him. But we exposed him continuously; his social justice plank has been a farce.’’ The Naxalites are contesting some 40 seats directly and reportedly supporting the Paswan-CPI alliance. Since there is every possibility of a hung assembly in Bihar one more time, the Naxalites can swing the balance. They count for another reason as well. The fear of their guns may deter others from using the gun. In any case, the state may experience less violence this time than before because of the Election Commission’s deployment of a large number of central forces. Still, all sides are preparing for violence. It may be pertinent to quote a candidate who has just been given a ticket by a political party: ‘‘My first priority is to buy weapons.’’
