After five years in power, the ruling Congress-NCP combine may be able to overcome anti-incumbency given a swing in its favour in three of six regions of Maharashtra: Vidarbha, Marathwada and north Maharashtra. The Congress-NCP alliance is expected to improve its position significantly in Vidarbha and Marathwada. However, in the North, the BJP is likely to extend its grip. Across the three regions covered today, the two fronts are running neck and neck. It is the other three regions that will decide the fate of the Congress-NCP government. These are the findings of the first of two opinion polls commissioned by The Indian Express, its sister publication, Loksatta, and New Delhi Television. The poll, conducted by leading market research agency MODE, involved fieldwork between September 5 and 12. The sample size was 29,613, probably the largest ever for a Vidhan Sabha election. And as many as 100 out of the 288 seats were covered. Some words of caution. The poll was conducted before candidates were announced and well before campaigning began. Also, all polls are subject to sampling error. The sampling error in this poll does not exceed 3%. On the issue of free power, a majority in Marathwada and north Maharashtra were against the idea and it’s only in Vidarbha, that a thin majority supports the largesse. As for Vidarbha’s statehood, the demand is strongly opposed in Marathwada and the north. Even in Vidarbha, 55% of the respondents said No to a separate state.
