Inflation seen at 11.35 pct on Oct 11

Annual inflation rate is forecast to have eased to 11.35 per cent in the 12 months to Oct. 11.

India’s annual inflation rate is forecast to have eased to 11.35 per cent in the 12 months to Oct. 11 from 11.44 per cent a week earlier, according to the median estimate from a Reuters poll of 10 economists.

The wholesale price index is due around 6 p.m. on Thursday, just ahead of a monetary policy review on Friday, although it has been superseded by Monday’s surprise 100 basis point cut in the repo rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Analysts said inflation has probably already peaked, and may now be on a downtrend, although four of the 10 economists polled saw inflation slightly rising above the previous week’s level.

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In early August, the inflation rate was 12.91 per cent, the highest reading since annual numbers in the current data series became available in April 1995. It jumped into double digits after a hike in government-controlled retail fuel prices in June.

“We expect the fuel and manufacturing index to see some decline. Primary articles have been very volatile week on week, but we may see some decline there too,” said Namrata Padhaye, economist at IDBI Gilts.

The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index (CPI) because it includes more products and is also published weekly. The CPI is released monthly.

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