Afghanistan is a society, a polity, and an economy that has suffered the equivalent of a nuclear holocaust. September 11, 2001, dramatically changed its prospects. New hopes for the future were kindled by the arrival of the United Front and the departure of the Taliban from Kabul; further developments such as the holding of the Bonn Conference and the setting up of an Afghan Interim Authority, the emergency Loya Jirga and the formation of the transitional administration, have transformed the situation. Political activity, which was suppressed by the Taliban, has recommenced. Yet, the security situation here remains fragile. Internal peace requires self-abnegation by the warlords and other power brokers. The world cannot be expected to do more for Afghanistan than Afghans are themselves prepared to do. For the time being, outside powers, especially Pakistan, are abjuring from their traditional policy of interfering negatively in the country’s internal politics. This has created prospects for peace, which Afghans must seize if they wish to be part of the modern world. Ethnic tensions, which have a long history here, exacerbated by the civil wars of the last 25 years, require a long period of healing. Wise leadership from among all ethnic factions, tribes and regions is required to rebuild the Afghan nation. Similarly, radical Islamic tendencies have to be mediated since these are averse to the emergence of a modern nation and society. Regional economic opportunities are immense and can be viewed in the context of transforming the political economy of the entire region. Realising these opportunities is vital, if the Afghans are to enjoy a better life. From all indications, the socio-economic situation of the Afghans is desperate: life expectancy is around 40 years; 70 per cent of the population is malnourished and only 13 per cent have access to improved water. While an estimated 15,000 women die every year from pregnancy-related causes, about a quarter of all Afghan children die before the age of five and less than one third of them were enrolled in schools (including madrassas). Afghanistan could earn immense revenue from allowing oil and gas pipelines to be constructed from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India. This requires two developments: the normalising of relations between Islamabad and New Delhi, and the securing of Afghanistan’s own internal security. What implications does this have for the other great conflict of South Asia — the long standing dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir? If one takes the long view of the Afghan predicament, perhaps the single most important political development for the South Asian region will be an end to the Indo-Pakistani conflict over Kashmir. This is because the most densely populated part of Afghanistan, east of the line between Kabul and Kandahar, is an extension of South Asia. The Pushto-speaking people of Afghanistan and the Pathans of the NWFP and Balochistan have deep and ancient links to the rest of the Indian subcontinent. The distance which was created between Pashtuns and Indians in the last two decades was an aberration caused by extraordinary circumstances and for malevolent purposes. India had developed and maintained close relationships with the anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan, particularly the Panjshiri Tajiks of the Northern Alliance, led by the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud. It has now to make strenuous efforts to engage the Pathans. In this regard, Yashwant Sinha’s recent visit to Afghanistan should be seen not only as an effort to maintain continuity in India’s high-level contacts with present Afghan leaders, but also an attempt at reaching out to the Pashtuns. It is in everybody’s vital interest that an intra-Afghan reconciliation takes place and that the historic linkages between the Pathan tribes of undivided India’s Northwest frontier and the rest of India are restored. This, more than anything else, will sound the death-knell, at least in South Asia, for the forces of darkness that nurtured the Taliban and developed the jihadi culture, which has now spread across the globe. (The writer is director, International Centre for Peace Initiatives)
