In UP, Congress walks a tightrope

Explanation Two is that Pramod Tewari had his personal scores to settle with Raja Bhaiyaa and opposition candidate Yeshwant Singh is a Raja Bhaiyya man. Tewari managed to rope in Motilal Vora and he in turn convinced Sonia. The Brahmin-Thakur cleavage provided the third explanation. The Brahmin MLAs in the Congress were opposed to supporting Yeshwant, a Thakur supported by Amar Singh and the dissident BJP MLAs, most of them Rajputs. Explanation Four is the problem Vora had with Yeshwant’s image and that settled it.

And, of course, there is the old explanation of Sonia’s animus towards Mulayam for scotching her chances of becoming PM in 1999. This may be a factor but one should not forget that politicians are pragmatic. If Sonia can receive V.P. Singh at 10, Janpath, she can do business with anyone.

The affair makes one thing clear: the party has not yet made up its mind on facilitating Mulayam’s coronation and is wary of doing anything that could bring him closer to the throne. Of course, were Mulayam to rustle up the requisite numbers, the Congress will have no option but to support him.

It is possible that the Congress, by supporting Mulayam unconditionally, may have sent the BJP-BSP government packing. But it would have also hurt its own chances of revival in UP. It would invite flak for the wrongdoings of Mulayam’s ministry and these would not be a few by the time the Lok Sabha polls come around in 2004. By aligning with Mulayam, it would put off the upper castes, who are disenchanted with the BJP but have nowhere to go, and the Congress hopes to woo them back.

This would mean that the Muslims would stand even more firmly behind the SP and Congress’s own flock may desert it. As it is, SP leaders boast privately that they can break 17, if not 20, of the 24 Congress MLAs. Mulayam’s record of splitting parties that have been his allies is well known. The party has not forgotten how he betrayed Rajiv Gandhi. They simply do not trust him.

It is argued that the fall of the UP government might have given the Congress an edge in Gujarat. This is undoubtedly true. But the Congress cannot do this at the cost of inviting near extinction for itself in UP. These are hard choices for any party.

But the party could have managed the affair better by anticipating the criticism, offering a convincing explanation for its decision and turning the situation to its advantage. Congressmen have a point when they argue that when the SP and BJP jointly supported hotelier Lalit Suri to get into the Rajya Sabha, it is called politics of consensus, but when the Congress abstains in the MLC election it is seen as support to communal forces.

An alliance with Mulayam may be more likely nearer to the Lok Sabha elections, when the Congress may be interested in eliciting his support in Delhi — provided it emerges as the single largest party — in return for its support to him in Lucknow.

The Congress may be clear on what will hurt the party. But it is certainly not clear on what will help it in UP. Priyanka Gandhi may well be able to charge the atmosphere in the state but that is a weapon unavailable to the party as of now. For the moment Priyanka is looking after only Amethi.

Ultimately, the party has to knuckle down to hard work and that is something its leaders have forgotten. It has to rebuild the organisation, right from the district and the block levels. During the last 11 years, the Congress has seen many leaders at the Centre — Rajiv Gandhi, Narasimha Rao, Sitaram Kesri, Sonia Gandhi. The PCC chiefs have come and gone. But the party structure in the districts has remained captive in the hands of the same people and has become moribund. UP is used to dealing directly with its top leaders. Villagers here recall how Indira Gandhi ate with them or Rajiv Gandhi sat on their ‘khatiya’. Sonia will have to provide greater access to UP Congress workers and not just function through a handful of leaders.

There are neither short cuts nor magic wands available to the Congress in UP, and the sooner it realises this, the better its chances of rejuvenation.