`If anyone can do it, the Gujaratis can’

Seismologists say earthquakes, unlike lightning, can and do strike the same place twice. But that usually happens after long intervals. The Kutch region is definitely a highly active seismic zone, but another big temblor could be decades, even centuries away.

“Cities like Bhuj can be rebuilt, but whether they rise again will depend on how much of an economic epicenter it was and the compelling reasons for it to be reborn,” says John Anderson, Director of the Nevada Seismological Laboratory.

The classic example of a city rising from the ravages of a quake is Tangshan in Northwestern China that was flattened by the most powerful temblor of the 20th century. On July 28, 1976, a monster quake of magnitude 8.2 killed more than a quarter of Tangshan’s 1 million inhabitants and decimated the city built on a network of coal mines.

But by 1990, this major industrial hub producing coal, iron, steel, machinery, motor vehicles and chemicals, had been completely rebuilt and had an estimated population of 1.5 million. It now goes by the moniker Brave City of China, and is a source of great pride to the Chinese.

Experts say there may not be as many compelling economic reasons for rebuilding Bhuj and the surrounding towns, but it is an area of greatantiquity and will not die easily.

“If anyone can do it, the Gujaratis can. They are industrious, resilient, and they have great fortitude,” says Howard Spodek, a professor ofhistory and urban studies at Temple University who has written a history of the city of Ahmedabad and who has been a regular visitor to the state since 1964.

According to Spodek, Gujarat governments typically have an industrialisation mindset sometimes even at the cost of more primary goals like education. The Narmada dam, a pet project of the Gujarat establishment, is just one such example. This mindset, along with the wide support the state can draw from the Gujarati diaspora across the world, can help in the task of reconstruction. In many ways, this is pretty much what happened in Tangshan.

In fact, the Tangshan quake, which has been studied at great length by seismologists, including Indian experts, should have been instructive to India. Like the Kutch region, China too has many such seismicallysenstive areas.

The 1976 quake not only hit one of China’s most vunerable cities (because of the coal mines underneath), but it struck at 3.42 a.m. when mostpeople were still in bed. Like in Bhuj, there was chaos, rescue efforts were delayed, and the only functional road to the city (250 miles Northwest of Beijing) was jammed with traffic. The city was also hit by back-to-back quakes. The 8.2 temblor was followed hours later by a 7.8 aftershock.