HRD won’t buy states’ claims, orders survey

Amazed by these changing figures, the HRD Ministry has decided to carry out a detailed countrywide survey of school enrolment. It has prepared a list of 40 institutes dealing in social sciences which would be entrusted with field research. They would take into account large representative samples in each state and will verify the claims made by the states, said Kumud Bansal, Secretary for Elementary Education.

The education data has travelled to and fro in these three states since March 31, 2003. In April last year, the three states reported a hopeless picture of huge numbers staying out of school — based on surveys made till March 31. In Uttar Pradesh, out-of-school children totalled 43 lakh, in Bihar, it was 44 lakh and in West Bengal it was 39 lakh.

This worried the then Education Minister, Murli Manohar Joshi. Not that he could do much, except provide grants and hope there would be better implementation of the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan.

Suddenly, around November last year, the states began claiming that they had achieved miraculous turnaround. Joshi, realising elections were around the corner, did not question the data.

The figures came in this January. West Bengal claimed that its out-of-school child population had dropped from 39 lakh to 4.39 lakh. Uttar Pradesh insisted that the number of non-enrolled children had plummeted to 2.1 lakh from 43 lakh. Even Bihar made an unbelievable claim and said the number was now 7.46 lakh and not 44 lakh as pointed out at the end of the 2002-03 fiscal.

The figures were then questioned not just by experts but also by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Education. Now it appears that the incredulous few were right. In the latest data secured by the Ministry, West Bengal says its non-enrolled children number has gone up to 10 lakh, Bihar’s new figure is a realistic 29.8 lakh and Uttar Pradesh sums up to approximately 7.27 lakh.

But the Ministry is not convinced. Officials say that while Bihar’s figures looked reasonably possible, those from UP and West Bengal still paint a rosy picture.