How to develop a superpower

The United States8217; global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new technologies and industries faster than anyone else. For the last five decades, US scientific innovation and technological entrepreneurship have ensured the country8217;s economic prosperity and military power. It was Americans who invented and commercialised the semiconductor, the personal computer, and the Internet; other countries merely followed the US lead.

Today, however, this technological edge 8212; so long taken for granted 8212; may be slipping, and the most serious challenge is coming from Asia. Through competitive tax policies, increased investment in research and development R038;D, and preferential policies for science and technology S038;T personnel, Asian governments are improving the quality of their science and ensuring the exploitation of future innovations. The percentage of patents issued to and science journal articles published by scientists in China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan is rising. Indian companies are quickly becoming the second-largest producers of application services in the world, developing, supplying, and managing database and other types of software for clients around the world. South Korea has rapidly eaten away at the US advantage in the manufacture of computer chips and telecommunications software. And even China has made impressive gains in advanced technologies such as lasers, biotechnology, and advanced materials used in semiconductors, aerospace, and many other types of manufacturing8230; This year, total US expenditures on R038;D are expected to top 290 billion 8212; more than twice the total for Japan, the next biggest spender. In 2002, the US R038;D total exceeded that of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK combined8230; And although scholars from other parts of the world may write relatively more science and engineering papers than Americans do, US research continues to be cited the most.

These strengths, however, should not obscure the existence of new threats to the long-term health of science and innovation in the United States. A record 422 billion budget deficit, for example, may undermine future government support for R038;D. Recent shifts in federal spending will leave basic research 8212; that driven by scientific curiosity rather than specific commercial applications 8212; underfunded, depriving the economy of the building blocks of future innovation.

Excerpted from Adam Segal from the November/December issue of 8216;Foreign Affairs8217;