How India can reach the final

On form, Australia are expected to win all their three matches — against Kenya, New Zealand and Sri Lanka. If any of these teams can upset the rampaging Aussies, it is New Zealand. Simply because they have done it often enough, especially in the recent past. In any case, Australia should finish far ahead of the rest.

The only match Kenya could be favoured to win is against Zimbabwe. So they will end the Super Sixes at 10 or 14 points.

Assuming India beat Kenya and either the Kiwis or Lankans, they end at 16. That will be higher than what Zimbabwe will end with, even if they win all their matches. And also higher than what Kenya, Sri Lanka or New Zealand will end with, assuming India beats one of the Lankans and the Kiwis, and Australia beats one or both of them.

In that eventuality, on form, Australia will top the list, followed by India, and then by either Kenya or one of New Zealand and Sri Lanka. So the most likely semifinalists will be Australia, India, and two from among Sri Lanka, Kenya and New Zealand. In case of a tie between these teams, however, Kenya would go through, having beaten the other two in the group phase (as happened with Australia and South Africa in the 1999 semi-final). Then it would be a head-to-head between New Zealand and Sri Lanka, and the latter would be in on the same grounds. The semi-final line-up pits the top team (likely Australia) against the fourth and the second (probably India) against the third (possibly Kenya). Who’d then bet against an India-Australia final? The bookies favour Australia to win the tournament (8/15 on) while India are 7/2 second-favourites. And no, you can’t get odds on Duckworth and Lewis.