Tags:
Journalism of Courage
Although the India-US joint statement issued after four days of intense high-level discussions on the bilateral agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation 8212; the so-called 123 agreement 8212; is short and terse, newspaper reports quoting unnamed US officials seem to indicate that the bilateral agreement would be concluded very shortly after the two governments give a final review of the proposed agreement.
While the conclusion of the 123 agreement is a significant step forward, much needs to be done before the agreement can be presented to the US Congress for approval. Firstly, the Nuclear Suppliers Group would have to meet and amend the NSG Guidelines for nuclear transfers to enable nuclear commerce between India and NSG members. Secondly, India and the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA will have to conclude 8212; although not sign by then 8212; an India-specific IAEA safeguards agreement. Both are expected to take some time. Finally, India will have to negotiate separate nuclear cooperation agreements with the supplier countries before actual commerce can begin. It is very unlikely that all these would be completed before the end of this year. Nevertheless, by the end of next year, India would be a full participant in international civil nuclear trade on the economic side and global non-proliferation efforts on the political side.
On the economic side too, primarily on the question of the size and nature of the future Indian civil nuclear power programme, there are a number of aspects that need to be studied.
Currently, India8217;s long-term civil nuclear power programme is predicated on the three-stage nuclear programme developed at the time of Dr Bhabha, relying in the last stage on the vast Indian deposits of thorium. The thorium cycle was to be preceded by the pressurised heavy water reactors PHWR in the first stage to be followed by the fast breeder reactors FBR in the second stage. Although the first PHWR was imported from Canada, Indian scientists have mastered the PHWR technology and have been successful in upgrading the technology to design and construct PHWR reactors in the range of 500-700 MWe capacity. Fortunately, because of the various export control regimes that were operating against India, the programme had be developed in all aspects 8212; scientific, technological and industrial 8212; within the country and today Indian industry is fully capable of satisfying the highly demanding material, parts and equipments for the full range of PHWR power stations in the country. Unfortunately, the original estimates of 20,000 MWe PHWR capacity had to be scaled down to 10,000 MWe capacity in view of the shortage of natural uranium reserves in India. Substantial work, however, has already been done on the FBR, with a fast breeder test reactor FBTR running for a number of years and a prototype fast breeder reactor PFBR of 500 MWe capacity under construction with a scheduled commissioning date of 2011. Even with a 10,000 MWe indigenous PHWR capacity, and if the estimates of the breeding ratio of the FBR are borne out under actual operating conditions, the Indian civil nuclear programme can achieve substantial growth.
A study by DAE has projected that with only domestic PHWR capacity of 10,000 MWe and no further imported reactors, the Indian nuclear establishment 8212; with adequate financial inputs 8212; can achieve nuclear power capacity of 208 GWe that is, 208,000 MWe by 2052 contributing nearly 16 per cent of the projected electric generating capacity of 1,344 GWe at that time. If only an additional six reactors, of 1,000 MWe capacity each, are imported before the end of the next decade and the plutonium from the spent fuel of these imported reactors are used in FBRs, then the generating capacity can be increased to 275 GWe by 2052! By then, hopefully, the thorium-based reactors would have been developed and with India having one of the world8217;s largest thorium reserves, the Indian civil nuclear programme8217;s future would be fully assured.
However, these projections can be realised only if the Indian FBR programme performs as per the current estimates. Any shortfall in the breeding ratio of the FBR would have a serious impact on the growth of the nuclear power industry.
As the PFBR is expected to be commissioned by 2011, it should be possible to get an idea of the DAE8217;s success in the FBR programme by the mid-2010s. If the programme is a success 8212; and it is a big if since none of the current FBRs operating in other countries have been successful in reaching the calculated breeding ratios 8212; then there would be no great compulsion for India to import nuclear reactors from other countries. Even the need to import nuclear fuel would be greatly reduced.
In any case, any new reactor imported by India under the changed environment will not become functional till the mid-2010s. Therefore, India can at present plan to import a few imported reactors 8212; another 6,000 Mwe capacity as projected by the DAE in its study. If by the time these imported reactors are operationalised, the Indian FBR is proved to be a success, then the original three-stage programme can be fully implemented. Additional imported reactors then can be used to accelerate the capacity of the FBR programme to well beyond 275 GWe.
If, however, the Indian FBR programme is not proved to be a success, then India can explore fresh options. These can be:
l Building the Indian PHWR capacity to well beyond 10,000 Mwe, built with or without foreign technological inputs and fueled by imported natural uranium. Since the Indian design capabilities have been fully established, the primary constraint on the growth of the PHWR programme would be capital. The Indian nuclear regulatory framework can be amended to allow for the private sector 8212; domestic and foreign 8212; to participate in the India PHWR programme
l India can join the GNEP and use GNEP technological resources to continue with the FBR programme, albeit in a different form
l India can also explore possibilities of leveraging its expertise in thorium technology to become a partner in the multinational RTF Radkowski Thorium Fuel programme to enlarge its options 8212; along with its already current thorium research 8212; in using the domestic thorium reserves for the nuclear power programme.
The writer is visiting fellow at IDSA and National Maritime Foundation
