WASHINGTON, July 7: With both India and Pakistan indicating willingness to join the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, some intense and complex negotiations are now underway to cut a deal with the United States, which has emerged as the principle interlocutor entrusted with drawing the two countries into the international fold.Much as India has suggested that it is amenable to signing the international treaty banning nuclear tests if the US lifts, among other things, some of the high-tech controls now in place, Pakistan too has presented its own wish-list, including how to address its security concerns and the Kashmir issue.At first glance, there appears nothing new in all this. But mandarins who are familiar with finessing, nuancing, and parsing diplomatic positions recognise significant change in stance and atmospherics: New Delhi has moved away from its almost inflexible ``not now, not ever'' assertion on CTBT (much to the dismay of former diplomat Arundhati Ghosh who used those tough words to signalIndia's position in Geneva) to a ``maybe if.'' position.Equally significantly, Pakistan has delinked its stand on CTBT from India's, giving up its long-standing attitude of not signing anything New Delhi does not. In fact, there is talk in Islamabad now that there could be some percentage in signing first, becoming an international ``good boy,'' and putting New Delhi in the doghouse.The more fundamental reason for the change in Pakistan's position, according to some observers, is it's parlous financial situation. With only about a billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, it is less than a month away from defaulting on its payments and is more vulnerable than ever before to diplomatic pressures.The new positions representing the latest lines in the sand have been drawn in course of high-level talks, which while not tripartite, are decidedly three-way. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's special emissary Sahibzada Yakub Khan met on Monday with Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott (who hasbeen appointed by President Clinton as the lead official to deal with the imbroglio), much on the same lines as the latter's parleys with Prime Minister Vajpayee's special envoy, Jaswant Singh last month.Khan also called on Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and delivered a letter from Prime Minister Sharif to President Clinton.Interestingly, Washington has chosen to deal with Yakub Khan, a respected diplomat and a Sharif confidant, instead of Pakistan's irascible foreign minister Gohar Ayub Khan. Aside from his uncertain position in the Sharif cabinet due to domestic politics (his resignation is pending) US officials are said be appalled at some Ayub Khan's utterances and hold him in scant regard.Talbott meanwhile will fly to Europe later this week to meet again with Singh in Frankfurt on Friday, where more detailed and complex discussions are to take place on the nitty-gritty of any new arrangements that will have to worked out.These include not only the high-tech question the first straw inthe wind put out by New Delhi but also the Indian stand of maintaining a minimum credible deterrent vis-a-vis China, fissile material production, further testing of delivery systems (which again India is insisting on, given that Pakistan gets ready-made systems) etc.Initial reaction in Washington to the new Indian and Pakistani positions has been fairly off-hand. In fact, a state department official straightaway dismissed the Indian offer articulated by a spokesman in Prime Minister Vajpayee's office to negotiate on CTBT, repeating the familiar US position of ``sign now, sign without conditions.''Elsewhere, state department spokesman James Rubin was almost patronising while speaking about the Talbott-Singh talks, saying ``we are going to be discussing with them the question of how they can make the wise decision to join the Comprehensive Test Ban Treat and we hope they have come to realise the value of that, but we are not there yet by any stretch of the imagination.''Even as he was reacting,other mandarins in India presumably from the External Affairs Ministry were already resiling from the offer, sowing further confusion in the diplomatic minefield. ``That must have been a trial balloon to see if there was any wiggle room,'' one US official remarked, adding that the US would like to see the CTBT ``universally applied'', that is, no special concession to India.But the last word has not been said on the matter. Talbott, an experienced arms control and proliferation expert, has appealed to Indian sensibilities far more than many of his colleagues who have queered the pitch with some abrasive comments on India's stand and some of his comments in a recent interview suggests the US is not all that rigid and understand many of India's concerns.The Indian side expects Washington to recognise the flexibility it has shown and respond likewise. One significant climbdown by India is giving up its insistence on being recognised as a full-fledged nuclear power, which would have necessitated rewritingthe Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970, which US officials say would unravel the whole non-proliferation regime.
