Hand that waves

With Budget 2008-09, the UPA government has revealed its preference for advanced general elections. The Congress-led alliance is clearly hopeful of crafting its electoral campaign around not just its flagship rural employment guarantee scheme, but also the Rs 60,000 crore debt write-off for farmers. The promise of Pay Commission benefits and taxation relief in the budget to increase disposable income for the urban middle classes are other measures to consolidate a feel-good sentiment. The question now is, when could the Lok Sabha elections be? Not too soon. The option of a snap election is unavailable to the prime minister, with the delimitation exercise and the revision of electoral rolls expected to take at least three-four months. In any case, the Congress would be keen to wait and harvest any anti-incumbency against the opposition in key states where it hopes to return to power later in the year. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh must all elect new assemblies by end-2008.

Could we then be in the midst of the longest run-up to elections in India’s parliamentary history? The possibility offers the government both advantages and disadvantages. As our columnist today argues, with this move the Congress has rid itself of the fear of having its government pulled down by the left parties. Since mid-2007, when sharp statements by the prime minister and the CPM general secretary on the government’s civil nuclear initiative appeared to presage imminent elections, the UPA has too often appeared to be in two minds. Whether to call the Left’s bluff and proceed fast with its emblematic foreign policy move, or to go through the paces softly and forestall any threat to its majority in Lok Sabha. The Congress-led UPA will now be satisfied that it has had a chance to present its election budget. It can get on now with issues of governance without the fear of not going to polls on its own terms. And get on it must.

The more the budget recedes into the past, the less will it resemble a manifesto. Sufficient time away from the budget, the government will be judged not on what it promised, but on what it delivers. The NREGS, for instance, has been extended to all rural districts. Implementation of the scheme has been a problem, by the government’s own audit. Will that improve in 2008? The government must keep some time frame for when elections are to be called. Or else, it may place on itself the burden of inordinate populism, with little to show as follow-up.