The strategic complexion of Central Asia has undergone a sweeping change since 9 The US has created unprecedented military bases in the region. China, after a decade of diplomatic success in the area, suddenly feels challenged by the growing Western presence in its backyard. Moscow’s policy response has been incisive — insinuating that US entry in Central Asia has enhanced rather than threatened Russian national interests. Apart from gains on security, Russians believe that US engagement, especially in energy, would bring dividends in the longer run, as long as Russia controls the supply routes. Central Asians themselves have reaped enormous benefits by cooperating with the US in its war on terror as US aid to them has doubled. Russians now see the situation in its ‘near abroad’ fundamentally changed and finds more reasons to return to Central Asia. The opening of a new Russia military base at Kant airport in Kyrgyzstan marks the beginning of Russia’s formal re-entry into a strategically key region overlooking Afghanistan, China and South Asia. Besides the air unit, Russian troops will form part of rapid-deployment force to be stationed in Kyrgyzstan under the Collective Security Treaty. Already, since Putin’s ascendancy, Russia has quietly regained control over key sectors including oil, space, minerals and the defence industry. Against these changes, India needs to look at Central Asia with a new perspective. Central Asians perceive India’s potential to be a countervailing factor. However, they notice India conspicuously lacking a framework to deal effectively with the region. Indubitably, India’s gains have already been tremendous in building strong bilateral relations but dynamics evolving in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are increasingly becoming China-centric. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) by facilitating transportation highways, railway lines and pipelines across the Tian Shan and Pamirs has created an area of regional cooperation. Beijing has already prioritised development of western China in its third phase of economic reforms. A web of energy pipelines, including the one from Tarim to coastal China, is going to change the regional economic landscape lying north of India. However, it would be imprudent though for India to join the SCO. Instead, a regional framework involving India, China and Central Asian states minus Turkmenistan could form a viable option for a long-term cooperation.It is time that we factor China in our Central Asia policy. India has been a legitimate player in Central Asia until not so long ago and must stake benefit from China’s development plans in Xinjiang and Tibet. The feasibility of constructing oil/gas pipeline from Central Asia along western China connecting to northern India is now well established. Should this happen, it would bring about an unprecedented strategic change, let alone endowing energy supplies to entire northern India. New Delhi must also start pressing Beijing for the re-opening of Indian Consulate in Kashgar which was closed in the mid-fifties. The Central Asian states do recognise the strategic importance of India’s participation in their oil industry; however, it may take some time to become a reality. Nonetheless, Indian presence in the region is growing as hundreds of Indian technicians and skilled workers are finding their way into infrastructural development projects. About a thousand Indians are already working in the Aksai and Karachaganak based Consolidated Construction Company (CCC) and SAIPEM Company, undertaking pipeline construction. With the increasing participation of Indian workforce in petroleum management, Caspian and Central Asia would inevitably become another Gulf model for India. A state intervention to divert the Indian student crowd to studying in the Central Asian republics would also go a long way in broadening the scope of energy cooperation. India could also participate in the educational, information technology and heathcare sectors. Conversely, a breakthrough with India in the flow of information and ideas could add a new dimension to the meaning of the Silk Route. The writer was director, the Indian Cultural Centre, Almaty
