Poor agriculture performance, high inflation and diminished sentiment will impact growth of the economy in subsequent quarters. A cross-section of economists have put the growth rate for 2004-05 at 6-6.5 per cent: Saumitra Chaudhury, economic advisor, ICRA: “Though underlying growth is strong, I do not see agriculture growth sustaining the 3.4 per cent rate of the first quarter though manufacturing and services might continue to register good growth. The growth rate for the entire fiscal will be around 6.4 per cent.”Surjit Bhalla, MD, Oxus Investment: “Agriculture growth will definitely taper off from the first quarter rate of 3.4 per cent. However, with above 8 per cent growth rate in manufacturing and services, which will continue, GDP will grow at above 6 per cent for the entire year. High oil prices is a major cause of concern.”Shashanka Bhide, NCAER’s chief economist : “NCAER has made a projection of 6-6.5 per cent growth rate for the entire fiscal. For the year as a whole, agriculture will not grow at such a high rate and in fact is more likely to register a 1 per cent growth for the entire fiscal. Seven per cent growth for the economy is not likely.”
