The tea leaves are sending out a clear message. According to those who can read the signs, the worst of the five-year-long crisis is over and the recovery has begun.‘‘We are looking at a big jump in exports over the next few years. Already, the queries are coming in,’’ said Indian Tea Association (ITA) chairman C K Dhanuka, explaining why exports would be the mainstay of the recovery.In Guwahati recently as head of an ITA delegation to discuss industry issues with Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, Dhanuka said this was the first indication that the slump that began in 1999 was finally ending. ‘‘India’s tea exports nosedived in 1999. The industry also witnessed a simultaneous decline in prices, coupled with global over-production that impacted India the most adversely,’’ he said.High wage pay-outs, too, have added to the industry’s woes. Social costs (subsidised ration, electricity, accommodation and medical expenses) account for Rs 4.60/kg, and the ITA has long been urging the government, both Central and state, to bear at least 50 per cent of this outlay under the Plantation Labour Act.‘‘Decline in exports, however, remains the biggest headache. But things seem to be improving gradually, with off-take by Iraq, Iran and Pakistan picking up in the recent months,’’ Dhanuka said.Iran, which mostly imports orthodox tea from India, has already lifted about 10 million kgs this year, while exports to Pakistan has remained stagnant at around seven million kgs, the ITA chief said.Interestingly, while the demand for CTC tea in Pakistan is about 140 million kgs, that country lifts 50 per cent of its requirement from Kenya, which has emerged as a major threat to India in the global export market. Despite this, however, India is expecting to increase its export quantum to Pakistan by about three million kgs, he said.‘‘One problem with Indian tea is the high price resulting from various historic reasons. We are still awaiting some subsidy from the government, particularly for exports,’’ Dhanuka said.The Russian market, too, had remained static ‘‘largely because Russians are mostly importing cheaper tea from China, Sri Lanka and Kenya,’’ the ITA chairman said. Compounding the problem is the stagnant domestic market, with the younger generation preferring other beverages to tea.‘‘We have been demanding abolition of the Re 1/per kg excise duty on tea. Also, the government has a decade-old Rs 60-crore development corpus for the industry, which can be released easily for incentives, apart from tea research and a generic tea promotion campaign,’’ Dhanuka said.
