Getting at the oil

The editorial,‘A war without wisdom’ (IE, August 23), is timely and succinct. Your argument is further reinforced by the US desire...

The editorial,‘A war without wisdom’ (IE, August 23), is timely and succinct. Your argument is further reinforced by the US desire to get control of the Middle East oil to avoid falling into the Olduvai trap. The most important strategic aspect of the Olduvai theory is the importance of the Middle East in the energy scenario. Richard C. Duncan’s Olduvai theory of 2000 is the justification for the ‘interventionism’ of Bush. In April 2002, Newsweek had an issue almost entirely devotes to a tailored variety of this theory.

Olduvai is an archaeological site in the eastern Serengeti Plains in northern Tanzania. It is a steep-sided ravine and deposits exposed in the sides of the gorge cover a time span going back 2,100,000 years and are the longest known archaeological record of the development of the stone age. The Olduvai theory was first enunciated by R.C. Duncan in 1989 and is an inductive theory based on energy and population data. The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population. It says that energy production will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilisation a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.

All this suggests that permanent blackouts will be strongly correlated with the collapse of Industrial Civilisation. He suggests that the power shortages in California and elsewhere are the product of the long economic boom in the US, the increasing use of energy-guzzling computer devices, population growth and a slowdown in new power plant construction amid the deregulation of the utility market.

Story continues below this ad

Oil is a major primary source of energy for Industrial Civilisation. Duncan predicts that world oil production will reach its all-time peak in 2006. From then to the year 2040, world oil production will fall by 58.8 per cent — an average decline of 2.45 per cent per year. The OPEC/non-OPEC crossover event is predicted to occur in 2008. This event will divide the world into two camps: one with surplus oil, the other with none. This forecast presents the following scenario. One, starting in 2008, the 11 OPEC nations will produce more than 50 per cent of the world’s oil. Thereafter, it will control nearly 100 per cent of oil exports.

The known and predicated reserves of crude oil in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are 14.9 billion barrels in comparison with the 658.2 billion barrels (OPEC’s share of world reserves is 77 per cent with one-third production) in the five main oil producing countries of the ‘Middle East’ (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE). The OECD area, which consumes a little over 70 per cent of the world’s daily production, produces less than 10 per cent of global oil production and has only around 5 per cent of the world’s reserves.

Although Duncan’s Olduvai theory was enunciated before the formulation of the current US policy of the ‘axis of evil’, it has been rephrased in 2002 by Newsweek to justify US actions against Iraq and Iran.

Canada, UK and Australia formally recognise a Palestinian state

World9 hr ago

The UK, Canada, and Australia have recognized Palestine as a state, going against the US and Israel's opposition. British PM Starmer aims to revive peace without Hamas and hostage release. Canada and Australia also recognize Palestine, condemning terrorism. Over 145 UN members recognize Palestine, with France likely to join soon.

View all shorts

Live Blog