It’s official. Even the United States admits that global warming is a serious problem. But one of the less discussed aspects of global warming has not made it adequately into the public sphere — its impact on national security.India is going to face problems, not just from within its borders, such as the melting of the Himalayan glaciers, but from without, too. The environment has played a role in shaping India’s relations with Bangladesh, for instance. Environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources is a reality in Bangladesh today. Deforestation, damage to wetlands, depletion of soil quality, are some of problems the country already faces. The mudslides, which have reportedly claimed around hundred lives, are an example of how fragile Bangladesh is, ecologically speaking. The World Bank estimates that 25 per cent of the country’s four million wells may be contaminated by arsenic, a poison that occurs naturally in Bangladesh’s alluvial soils. So even availability of safe drinking water is going to become a problem in the future. Many scientific models also predict that the ‘increase in sea level’ will be the biggest environmental threat to Bangladesh. Wide regions of the country are situated just above sea level and in the estuary of three large rivers — the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna — which are susceptible to the floods because of tropical cyclones and heavy monsoons. Already a million people are displaced every year by the loss of land along rivers, and indications are that this trend could rapidly increase in days to come. A one-metre rise in sea level is predicted if no action is taken on global warming. This may inundate more than 15 per cent of the country, displacing more than 13 million. India could be directly affected by this, with ‘environmental migrants’ seeking refuge. This in turn will pose various challenges to India’s security. India also needs to monitor the ‘environmental happenings’ in regions like TAR (Tibetan Autonomous Region) and Nepal, because of their strategic relevance to India’s security. The point is that the 21st-century threats are essentially non-military. Doctrines of deterrence have no relevance when global warming challenges a nation-state. Climate projections then become essential to analysing future threats. Since all the three services are deployed along the border regions, they need to be tasked to gather ‘environmental intelligence’ by putting various instruments and sensors along the borders for the regular monitoring of atmospheric parameters from the national security point of view. The writer is a research fellow at IDSA
