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Journalism of Courage
On the morning of November 8 a suicide bomber ran into the training area of a Pakistani cantonment in the North West Province of Pakistan and blew himself up. The resultant blast killed 42 Pakistani soldiers and injured many others. The claimant of the blast is a Pakistani jehadi organisation who carried it out as an act of revenge for the bombing of a madrassa by Pak Gunships in Bajaur Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Area FATA on the November 1.
Pakistan hierarchy is faced with a dilemma, whether to take on the extremists head on or capitulate. Unfortunately, Pakistan seems to have adopted the latter course. I base my deduction from the fact that the Pakistan government is trying to sign a series of agreements with the Taliban and other jehadi groups for a path of 8216;live and let live8217;. On September 5, this year, Pakistan government signed an agreement with The Grand Jirgah equivalent of Maha Panchayat of North Waziristan in the FATA, which surprisingly attracted little attention and less comment in India. The terms of the Agreement dictated the abandonment of Army garrisons in Waziristan and forbade the Army to launch any operations or monitor actions of the tribals read jehadis in the region. It also ordained the Pak Army to turn over all arms etc seized during operations, that Pak Army had carried out over the previous two years and lift ban on carrying of arms. Further, all jehadis captured during the conflict were to be released. The icing on the cake, however, was the clause that foreigners, a euphemism for Al Qaida, not engaged in hostile activity would be permitted to stay.
A few words on Waziristan. It is a mountainous region in North West Pakistan, bordering the Khost Province of Afghanistan. Khost became notorious for Taliban training camps, the largest of which was hit by US cruise missiles on orders of Clinton in 2000 after Al Qaida had attacked US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. Waziristan along with five other agencies forms part of FATA in Pakistan. Since Durand Line was established as the border between India and Afghanistan in 1893, British chose to keep Waziristan outside the pale of effective governance. The region became part of Pakistan in 1947, with Pakistan continuing the British system of governance through political agents. The region is divided into two parts, North and South; the former populated by Darwesh Khel and Dawar tribes, famous for their warrior traits, and the Southern, by Mahsuds; population is about 8 lakhs.
The region along with Baluchistan has been the main source of Taliban recruits from Pakistan. Pakistan was forced to act after 9/11 and initiated some halfhearted military action against the Taliban in the region in 2003-4, when the US repeatedly pointed out to Pakistan that the Talibs after militant action in Southern Afghanistan were seeking refuge in the FATA. Under further goading, Pakistan launched military operations on a large scale in 2005, involving over five divisions, that is 75, 000 troops supported liberally by artillery, armoured protected vehicles, helicopter gun ships and air force.
So what compelled the Pakistan army and the government to sign a treaty with North Waziristan now? Official Pakistani admission is that they lost 350 troops, but reliable estimates put the figure upwards of 700 killed. Obviously the ruling junta had their bellyful of body bags and could not stomach more, or has Pakistan army turned soft? The other most plausible reason, of course, is that Pakistan is convinced that sooner or later Taliban will again rule Afghanistan, so to keep a working relation with them makes eminent political sense. Pakistan army spokesman, Major General Shaukat Sultan Khan, has openly committed to ABC News that even Osama Bin Laden would be permitted to stay in Waziristan as long as he was not involved in violent activity. Though the statement was retracted by the Pakistan army as a Freudian slip, the transcript is available. Intelligence sources indicate that similar negotiations are being brokered at Khyber, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and Bajaur, thereby making Osama8217;s pronouncement of making this belt the base for Al Qaida a frightening reality.
The question that arises is whether Pakistan could sign an agreement of this nature without a nod from the US. Conjecture can be made that it is unlikely and what may have happened is an assurance from Pakistan that the Taliban, extremist jahadis, Al Qaida and the rest would not carry out action inimical to US interest. Naivete aside, such an assurance can only be laughed at. Al Qaida8217;s sworn enemy number one is USA, followed by Israel and the West; India has also been clubbed at one time with Israel as enemy of Islam.
So how does a possible scenario unfold. The region of FATA and in particular North Waziristan will continue to be the safe haven to launch operation by the Taliban against NATO forces and the legitimate government of Afghanistan without any interference by the Pakistan government. The NATO officials have openly stated that attacks against them have sharply increased. The overall strategy of Al Qaida and its proteacute;geacute;e Taliban is to wear out the forces of NATO and the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. Signs of such a fatigue are already noticeable. Once Afghanistan is under Taliban, next on the sights of Jehadis would be Central Asian Republics, particularly Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Inter alia the effect on Russia, Iran and India will be adverse to say the least. The extremist elements of whole of Central, South and West Asia will get a boost. The whole region will revert to pre 9/11 days with free export of terror to the rest of the world. The civilised world must sit up and take note of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan, and Pakistan better beware of the consequences.
The writer, a former vice-chief of army staff, was additional director-general, Military Intelligence, during Operation Vijay in Kargil
