Just the sight of Rajasthanis celebrating a rainy July after eight years of bone dry weather should send the stock market index shooting north. Finally the country may be able to exorcise the spectre of another poor monsoon that had been staring it in the face since an early monsoon projection had forecast poor rains. The India Meteorological Department has just updated its projection, and now says that total rainfall of the southwest monsoon would be 98 per cent of the long period average. In other words, it is a normal monsoon which is bound to provide a fillip for markets and overall growth prospects. What will add to the cheer is that the probability of drought is down to six per cent from the earlier assessment of 21 per cent. All this talk of probabilities is part of the refinements that the IMD has recently introduced to forecast the south-west monsoon. There are four new models in place of the earlier 16 parameter model that was used since 1988. With these new models, the IMD can update its forecasts and predict rainfall during a particular month. But no amount of statistical sophistication can really come to grips with chasing the monsoon. The earlier 16 parameter model was dumped after it failed to predict last year’s disastrous monsoon — even though the rains picked up during the second half of the season. The spatial and temporal spread of rainfall is highly uneven, which is evident in the bountiful rains in parts of Rajasthan and flood conditions in the Northeast this year. Probabilistic statements don’t make monsoon forecast any more precise. But for farmers what is good news indeed is that rainfall in July is expected to be 102 per cent of normal. The monsoon during this month is crucial for the kharif or summer crop. The scenario of last year’s worst drought in recent memory unfolded when July received the lowest ever rainfall that month—a massive 49 per cent departure from normal, and at least a dozen states had reported a serious shortfall of rain. Such a shortfall during the rainiest month of the season was responsible for kharif foodgrain output falling to 90.5 million tonnes from 111.5 million tonnes in 2001-02. With IMD’s latest tidings of a rainy July this year, the output this time is being pegged at 110 million tonnes. This forecast is as per a crop-weather model for predicting agricultural output on the basis of expected rainfall developed by the Union agricultural ministry. Of course, there is a high degree of provisionality in such forecasts which is bound to vary with the actual course of the monsoon. There are also concerns that area coverage under various crops is lagging due to the shortage of seeds. But there is no denying the spring in the stride of Krishi Bhavan officials regarding another normal monsoon.
