Fears of a feather

The word “influenza” derives from a medieval belief that epidemics were the result of the influence of the stars. That origin seems uncannily apt at the moment, with fact and superstition mixing to spread hysteria over bird flu far and wide. There are very sound reasons for being on THE alert to reported cases of avian flu. There are also, however, equally good reasons to keep a sense of proportion while planning precautions. Bird flu certainly poses a gigantic challenge to global health. More than 10 countries have already reported cases of the epidemic, and an estimated 50 million chickens have been slaughtered to halt its spread. More worrisome is the fact that the virus has jumped from birds to humans in Vietnam and Thailand, with more than a dozen cases reported thus far.

This has the makings of an epidemiologist’s worst nightmare. For decades, health workers’ biggest fear has been the appearance of a new human strain of the flu. Given how infectious the virus can be, and given the inevitable time lag between the spread of a new strain and the formulation of a cure, they are forever updating contingency programmes to tackle a pandemic. The SARS outbreak last year, for instance, was seen as just a curtain raiser to the long feared big attack, something along the lines and scope of the 1918-19 flu pandemic that claimed an estimated 40 million lives. Current fears about avian flu stem from the possibility of the bird flu virus, for which doctors at the moment have little counter, mutating into a variant that spreads from humans to humans. Hence the need to track poultry for symptoms and to institute quarantines upon suspected outbreaks.

That, however, is the theoretical framework — that is a case for the authorities in India to make contingency plans. In reality, it is useful, and important, to remind ourselves that no case of bird flu has been reported in India. What has been reported instead is panic, a sudden and swift decline in the consumption of poultry products. This not only threatens the livelihood of thousands of poultry farmers — it also underlines the persistence of unreason in our modern times. Doctors warn that new epidemics will continue to threaten global health; irrational responses harking back to medieval times will only make the task of dealing with them more difficult.