If a McKinsey report is anything to go by, India can also do a China. Exports of Indian manufacturing sector have the potential to jump to $300 billion by the year 2015 from last fiscal’s $40 billion, says a joint Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and McKinsey study.But even this $300 billion will be much lower than China’s exports of $438 billion last year.This will increase India’s share of the world manufacturing trade to 3.5 per cent by 2015 from the current levels of 0.8 per cent. Coupled with robust domestic demand, this is likely to create 25-30 million new jobs in manufacturing and add 1 per cent to India’s annual GDP growth rate, says the study.The report released at the CII Manufacturing Summit 2004 on Friday, also says this will see the share of manufacturing jump to 21 per cent of the GDP from present 16 per cent.Driving the possible Indian manufacturing success story is the global trend to manufacture and source products from low cost countries (LCCs). This is likely to gather strength over the next 10 years, especially in the skill-intensive industries, where India has a significant competitive advantage, the report says.Indian players must acquire a global mindset, carefully select products, rapidly build cost excellence and marketing capability and MNCs proactively develop India as one of the top three sourcing hubs. Further, the government should implement key reforms in taxation, infrastructure, SEZs, labour and skill development to help unlock India’s skilled manufacturing potential.CII president Sunil Kant Munjal said, ‘‘The $300 billion is not a forecast, but a target’’.The chunk of the $300 billion opportunity is in just four sectors: auto components, apparel, speciality chemicals and electrical & electronic products. Exports from these sectors can jump to $90 billion in 2015, from last fiscal’s level of $10 billion.
