Evolution of a Prime Minister

Vajpayee merely informed the Indian National Lok Dal leader that theGovernment was not in a position to scale down the price of urea. The PM did not even attempt to give him a face-saver, or ask him to put off his decision.

Seated with the PM was Pramod Mahajan, and this put off the Haryana leader further. As the leader of an alliance partner, he had hoped to see the PM alone. As it was, Home Minister L.K.Advani’s comment a few days earlier about insignificant parties giving the government a bad name had rattled Chautala no end. Whether it was because the BJP has weaned away two of Chautala’s MPs, or because of bad handling, Vajpayee gave an impression that he did not care if Chautala withdrew support.

Even though Vajpayee could have done without the Chautala and the (Sunder Singh) Bhandari affairs on the eve of his Lahore visit, he does not seem to think that it would trigger off a process immediately to bring down his government.

Vajpayee is banking on the handshake, or more likely the hug, with Nawaz Sharif at the Wagah border, which is going to be a historicmilestone in the relationship between the two countries. Both countries will be taking an imortant first step to break a 50-year-old psychological barrier which has determined their relationship so far.

No Indian leader would have had the kind of reception that is being planned for Vajpayee in Lahore. With a buggy ride, a civic reception in Lahore Fort, a joint statement on the nuclear question, both Prime Ministers would be destroying the myth that they are a danger to each other and to the world with their nuclear capability. This may ease the pressure on both of them, for the P-5 have been breathing down their necks during the last eight months.

The stakes are higher for the Pakistani Prime Minister. Nawaz Sharif may have critics in the Jamat-e-Islami, the ISI and in his foreign policy establishment with the army and Benazir Bhutto remaining neutral for the time being. He is therefore going to be under more pressure to produce some tangible result.

In the long run, easing of relations with India isbound to diminish the role of the military and lead to greater democratisation of the country, helping the Pakistan Prime Minister deal with the ethnic and economic problems he faces. Nawaz Sharif had apparently asked Vajpayee whether India was aware of Pakistan’s economic crisis when it chose the timing of its nuclear blasts. He has asked the Indian PM for help on the economic front. Ironically, a nuclear Pakistan is more secure and self-confident in dealing with India.

The mega media event on February 20 is bound to make the personal graph of Vajpayee go up. Parties across the political spectrum may chafe against the credit he will get but no mainstream group is likely to criticise his initiative. The truth is that only a BJP leader could have swung Lahore, just as only a right-wing Menechem Begin could sign a peace agreement with Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat.

And if any of BJP’s allies withdraw support after Lahore, it would be projected as an attempt to undo the peace process between the twocountries, which is neither going to go down well with the Hindus nor with the minorities in India. This if anything will rein in the party’s allies, at least for a while. With this move, Vajpayee has won a few more months of reprieve.

The timing of the bus journey was determined by Vajpayee to position himself before the start of the Budget session of Parliament, which was bound to see an intensification of the attack on his government. The Pakistani side was taken by surprise at the speed with which New Delhi moved, after Nawaz Sharif made an offer to Vajpayee through an interview in The Indian Express. With the Chinese Defence Minister due to visit Pakistan on February 19, initially the Pak PM did not want the wires to get crossed.

The idea of a bus from Delhi to Lahore was mooted by Nawaz Sharif when the two Prime Ministers met in New York last September. Aware of the magic of the move, Vajpayee told Jaswant Singh to spur on the process. Singh did not want to show an over-enthusiasm lest the movebecome suspect in the Pakistani eyes.

At the end of the day, Vajpayee has bought some more time and if his government goes, he has ensured that it would be on an issue involving national honour, and a breakthrough between India and Pakistan which is likely to have a broad appeal.