EU, me and Russia

Few see a sinister meeting of minds between Russia and Germany. Instead, they blame money. “The Germans have made their decision: tens of billions of euros in business in exchange for friendship with the regime,” says another top east European diplomat. The result is to cast doubt… on Germany’s role in both the EU and NATO. Suppose… that Russia were to provoke a confrontation with Lithuania over transit to its Kaliningrad enclave, or over language and citizenship laws in Estonia and Latvia, countries where tens of thousands of people have Russian citizenship?

German officials find such notions preposterous. The best way to avoid confrontation with Russia is engagement, they say. The bigger and better the trade and investment relationship with the West, the less likely the Kremlin is to play geopolitical games. The ex-communist countries should stop whinging and follow the example of Germany… Perhaps they should. Most new member states of the EU and NATO are now determinedly non-confrontational, at least publicly, in their dealings with Russia… The main exception is Lithuania, which is vetoing the start of EU talks with Russia on a new partnership and co-operation agreement… That position looks remarkably isolated, though for a country which 18 years ago shocked the world and defied the Kremlin by declaring the restoration of its pre-war independence, isolation is a relative concept. It may be right, and it is certainly easy, for big rich countries like Germany to do deals with Russia. For smaller and poorer countries that were once part of the Soviet empire, it will never be quite the same.

Excerpted from ‘Molotov cocktail’ in The Economist, May 8