WASHINGTON, March 13: As if there isn't enough misery and trouble here already, a giant asteroid is likely to pass within 30,000 miles of the Earth in the year 2028 with an outside chance that it might even hit the planet.The galactic projectile, named Asteroid 1997 XF11, will come by the Earth on October 26, 2028, a Thursday, the Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams, the international astronomical agency that monitors asteroids and comets announced on Wednesday. The Bureau said calculations of the asteroid's progress are approximate and there is no immediate cause for alarm.The chance of an actual collision is small, but one is not entirely out of question, Brian Marsden, an astrophysicist who heads the Bureau, said. Scientists are calculating that the odds of the asteroid hitting Earth are anywhere between 1 in 1000 to 1 in 5000. They will have a better idea in the year 2000, when it will be back in view allowing improved measurements.Right now the asteroid is receding from the Earth andgrowing fainter. It takes about 21 months to circle the Sun. As of now, the asteroid is estimated to be about a mile in diameter and will approach the Earth at 45,000 miles an hour. The impact of such an object crashing into Earth could have catastrophic consequences, but scientists said it would not be enough to exterminate life. Releasing energy equivalent of 1 million megatons of TNT, it will cause tidal waves, continent-sized fires, and an eruption of dust that will effect global climactic conditions and virtually destroy agriculture.The Earth has been hit by asteroids and comets in the dim and distant past, and indeed even in this century. Scientists believe the impact of an asteroid or a comet some six miles in diameter wiped out dinosaurs on Earth some 65 million years ago. That explosion released energy 5 billion times that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.On a more recent time scale, a stony meteorite less than 100 yards in diameter exploded over Siberia in 1908, flattening trees over athousand square miles, setting off forest fires, and causing damage equivalent to a 15-megaton hydrogen bomb. If it hits, Asteroid 1997 XF11 will cause damage many times worse than the last recorded impact. If it does not hit, as is most likely, scientists say it will provide a spectacular site especially over Europe. In Europe, where it would be dark by that time, the object should be a splendid sight as it moves from northwest to southeast across the sky over a couple of hours, Marsden said.Asteroid 1997 XF11 was discovered on December 6 by James V Scotti of the University of Arizona. His finding was soon backed by two Japanese amateur astronomers and on the strength of the combined measurements, the asteroid was added to a list of 108 known `Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs).' Thereafter, astronomers in several countries refined measurements of the orbit and concluded that the asteroid would come particularly close to Earth in 2028. Hollywood, ever ready to milk human frailty and fantasy intobox office dollars, already has two movies on the floor this season about the galactic impact theme. Armageddon and Deep Impact will join the pantheon of films on comets and meteors zooming towards a panicky Earth.If indeed the asteroid zeroes in on Earth, scientists will have a chance to put into practice what science fiction writers and Hollywood dream merchants have proposed - shoot a nuclear missile at it to throw it off course. The idea has been seconded by many scientists including Edward Teller, father of the hydrogen bomb. ``We have plenty of time - 30 years, in fact - to improve our knowledge of this thing and take steps, if necessary,'' Marsden said.
