Drought possibilities down from April, assures Met

For July, a month most crucial for agriculture, the India Metereological Department (IMD) has forecasted 102 per cent of the LPA for the entire country. Last year, though the country had received normal rainfall in June, it was July that proved to be the undoing with just 50 per cent of the average resulting in one of the worse droughts ever.

Until last year, the IMD issued a single forecast on May 25. The new 10 parameter model uses two concurrent parameters in June over and above the eight available in April. This has helped them fine-tune the April forecast and provide an update, enabling mid-season corrective actions to be taken, if required. The most important aspect is that they are able to shed light on what July is going to be like.

This year, the South-West Monsoon advanced into North East India on June 5. Its onset in Kerala was on June 8, one week behind its normal date. Its further advance was also delayed by a week, except over Rajasthan where it reached on the expected date. ‘‘However, the pre-monsoon showers made-up for the delay in most parts of the country,’’ said R.R. Kelkar, DG, IMD. The monsoons covered the entire country by July 8.

Rainfall for the entire country for the period June 1 to July 2 2003 was 6% above its LPA. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 30 had normal/excess rainfall, 5 received deficient rainfall and 1 received scanty rainfall.

The first ever-update uses two additional parameters that did not exist earlier — the speed of low-level easterly winds over south Indian Ocean and the El Nino trends from January to June. According to IMD both are favourable this year.

The IMD also says that sea surface temperature anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean have been falling since December 2002 upto mid May 2003, leading to predictions in certain circles that La Nina might develop during the Indian monsoon months.

El Nino is the anomalous warming of the equatorial Pacific ocean with a 3-6 year cycle. La Nina is anomalous cooling.

‘‘The IMD is watching the situation and we feel it is going to be a neutral year,’’ said Kelkar. Last year’s drought was primarily seen as a result of El Nino developing during the monsoon months. The forecast issued until last year only took into account the El Nino figures till December, making it slightly redundant.