Disaster politics

The new candour from the CCP leadership stands in contrast to the SARS crisis of 2003, when Beijing — stuck in a denial mode — fell short of an early and decisive reaction. It was a lot worse during the dark and final days of the Cultural Revolution, when China could not even acknowledge the scale of the tragic earthquake that hit Tangshan and killed nearly 250,000 people.

The CCP leadership is conscious of the fact that a public perception of failure will rob it of political legitimacy, or as the Chinese might call it, the “mandate from heaven”.

Although it might not have a formal democracy in the Indian or Western fashion, politics has never been abolished in modern China. In the last few years, the internet has emerged as a powerful tool for the expression of popular opinion. The outpouring of Chinese nationalist anger against the Tibetans for disrupting the rallies around the world for the Olympics torch helped reinforce the official positions.

In the wake of the Sichuan earthquake, though, there is widespread Chinese criticism of governmental corruption, lax building codes and the poor quality of infrastructure.

‘Go out’ for food

It is now official. After oil and mineral resources, China is getting ready to extend its ‘go out’ strategy for food. Recognising the importance of ensuring adequate food supplies for its billion plus population that is enjoying rising levels of prosperity, China is considering plans to produce and secure food from beyond its border.

Last week, reports from Beijing said China’s ministry of agriculture is debating a proposal to assist national companies in acquiring land overseas for food production. The reports also indicated that the under populated regions of Africa and Latin America might be the initial targets for a new Chinese policy on food security. Russia too could be an inviting proposition.

Sceptics in China and beyond argue it is unrealistic to premise national food security on overland production, especially when poorer countries are alarmed at rapidly rising food prices. They call, instead, for an emphasis on raising agricultural productivity at home. This might be easier said than done.

“We now have less room to increase grain planting acreage, and it is becoming more and more difficult to raise yields,” Nie Zhenbang, a senior Chinese official dealing with agriculture was quoted as saying by the China Daily last week. He cited shrinking arable land and water shortages as the main challenges to China’s future grain supply.

China, after all, owns only nine per cent of the world’s arable land, but is home to nearly 20 per cent of the world’s population. If future food imports are inevitable, China thinks it might have no option but to secure reliable access to foreign production of food.

Overseas plantations

Chinese companies are already involved in developing overseas plantations for a variety of natural resources. From Southeast Asia to Africa, Chinese companies have snapped up contracts for cultivating sugarcane, teak, oil palm, eucalyptus, cassava, corn and other crops.

Media reports say the Chinese telecommunications giant, ZTE International, has acquired more than 7 million acres of forest land in Congo to plant oil palms. In Zimbabwe, state-owned China International Water and Electric Corporation is said to have got rights from the government to farm 2,50,000 acres of corn. Indonesia is reportedly discussing bio-fuel plantation development with the China National Overseas Oil Corporation.

The debate in Beijing is now about developing a comprehensive framework for Chinese agricultural companies to venture out for the production of foodgrain and other agricultural commodities. This would necessarily involve both incentives and guarantees by the Chinese government.

The writer is professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohan@ntu.edu.sg