The diplomatic activity of the past two months has finally borne fruit in the form of a unanimous resolution by the UN Security Council last Friday. With it the immediate threat of a US strike against Iraq has surely receded, although air strikes against Iraqi targets continue. The earlier US position of threatening unilateral war against Iraq underwent a change after North Korea declared that it possessed nuclear weapons and later even threatened to resume its ballistic missile testing programme. The Republican victory in the congressional polls on the groundswell of strident war threats also permitted a more relaxed approach in Washington. The new Security Council resolution requires any problem in the matter of inspections and incidents related to them to be referred back to it rather than allow action outside its ambit. Unilateral use of force by the Anglo-American governments is still possible but less probable, especially in view of reported assurances to Syria that this resolution would not be used as a pretext to strike Iraq. Now either Iraq agrees to the terms of the resolution within a week or else the UN inspection agencies give their verdict. Some experts, however, feel that this is likely to run into roadblocks in view of the US policy so far and numerous UN resolutions that can be cited to keep the screws on the people of Iraq. The more fundamental change, at least for the time being, is the shift of US position from ‘regime change’ to ‘disarmament’ in Iraq. By specific references to presidential palaces and complexes, the US has managed to get endorsement for intrusive inspections. This is likely to be seen as gross humiliation for Saddam Hussein. This, aided by external forces, could possibly trigger dissidence within the country leading to a regime change. The possible assumption of power by a hardline ruler is likely under the circumstances. On the other hand, Iraqis are likely to see the new UN resolution as a significant climbdown by the US. This, however, does not rule out the possibility of incidents, intended or otherwise, leading to a flare up during the coming weeks once inspections start. Any use of force at this moment will only have negative and far reaching implications for international peace and security.
