In the end there was no need to ponder over the host of factors — the impact of the BSP, or of Narendra Modi or of the regional variation between the Malwa and the Vindhya regions. For it was the biggest mandate in MP’s electoral history, and it was a vote against the Digvijay Singh regime. To the BJP’s credit, it ran a campaign tailored to this expectation.That this anti-incumbency vote was marked by the search of reasonable alternatives to the Congress is illustrated by numbers of ‘‘others’’ who have won. The number of seats to the ‘‘others’’ have stayed more or less the same, at around 20, since 1998 even though the BSP was a divided house.This is a clear indication that wherever there was a viable non-BJP alternative to the Congress, the voter backed it. The resentment has been fuelled by the power situation, and fanned by the bad roads. Evidence of this comes from the difference in the magnitude of defeat in Chhattisgarh and MP. Three years ago, they were the same state, and the same anti-incumbency factors should have been operating, but with one difference, the power situation in the two states.The BJP has used this as the focal point of its campaign. As Uma took the message to the rural audience, Arun Jaitley took over the job of forcing Digvijay on the defensive in the local media. In the end, Digvijay felt the absence of backup from within the party, having been saddled with non-performers like Suresh Pachouri to handle the media.So the BJP has to be cautious about the lessons it draws from this campaign. In the Lok Sabha, Digvijay will not be a factor, but depending on how things work out now, Uma could well be. MP has a history of large variations between the Assembly and Lok Sabha voting patterns. But these are just matters to be pondered over.The Congress has more serious problems at hand. It has to search for a new Leader of Opposition as Digvijay has already refused the job. Leaders such as Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya have been unable to ensure victory even in their own pockets of influence, and just 12 of the 50 ministers have made it through. In this scenario, indications are that Deputy Chief Minister Subhash Yadav could take over, but he will have his task cut out for him.
