Demise of a treaty

The three-decade old historic arms control treaty which used to be considered the foundation of arms control and strategic stability has passed into history, rather quietly. Contrary to what was believed only last year, the negative comments have been surprisingly mild. The main opposition was expected from Russia and China which believed that they were the main targets of the national missile defences which could not be built under the ABM Treaty. September 11 and the consequent war against terrorism is a major factor which has also brought the three powers much closer on other issues. Russia is part of the NATO. China had made it clear that any US withdrawal would jeopardise arms control and non-proliferation and hence it is likely to keep its options open. Ballistic missile defences are also not going to be ready as effective systems for some years and every player plans to find the counter policy in the meanwhile.

The demise of the ABM Treaty confirms other trends of countries shifting from co-operative security arrangements to more unilateralist policies to safeguard their own national interests. The shift from ABM Treaty to missile defences also signifies a shift from the MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) policies to one which may be called SAD (Self Assured Defence) on the assumption that ballistic missile defences would work in real life. This is a tall order. But it would be difficult to argue against a country’s right to self-defence if it has the capacity to do so. Powerful states like the US have a greater capacity to transform the right into policy and capability. An increasing trend toward unilateralist policy of self-defence also implies that more and more countries would try to adopt the same principle.

We in India have always looked at arms control with suspicion especially since it was perceived and pursued as a military strategy to provide a competitive advantage in military capabilities in areas that would suit the country most. For decades we ignored arms control for a variety of reasons and put all our effort on disarmament which was crucial and still vital. But given the international trends, we would have to pay increasing attention to arms control issues in future and identify how to use it to our advantage in relation to our national interests.