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Journalism of Courage
After his impressive victories in Tuesday8217;s Potomac primaries 8212;Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC 8212; Senator John McCain8217;s bid for the Republican presidential nomination is now unstoppable. His success, in the teeth of opposition of the powerful conservative movement, which forms one of the pillars of his party8217;s base, makes him rather unique in the recent history of the Republican Party.
All his predecessors had made peace with the social and religious conservatives, often at great cost. In demonstrating that he is not a prisoner of the party8217;s extreme right wing, McCain emerges as a potential unifier of the nation by energising support among moderates across party lines.
Chicago 1968
Meanwhile the Democratic race is poised to get bitter, despite the massive momentum gathering behind Senator Barack Obama. His dramatic victories over the last couple of weeks 8212; marked by the ability to reach out to all sections of Democratic voters 8212; do not necessarily mean that Senator Hillary Clinton is about to give up. She is down but certainly not out.
Having won a significant chunk of the delegates needed for the nomination, Clinton will desperately try and halt Obama8217;s surge in Ohio and Texas, two large states that go to polls on March 4. As Obama and Clinton slug it out, memories of the chaotic National Convention in Chicago 40 years ago are returning to haunt the Democratic Party. Two political assassinations in 1968 8212; of black civil rights activist Martin Luther King Jr. in April and Senator Robert Kennedy who was running for the Democratic presidential nomination, in June 8212; and the deep divisions in the party over the Vietnam War saw President Lyndon Johnson deciding not to run for a second term.
Riding a popular anti-war campaign, Senator Eugene McCarthy emerged as hero of the left and liberal sections. Yet, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who did not contest in the primaries, secured the nomination as the establishment candidate. A few days of violence between protestors and the police rocked Chicago.
One positive consequence of that tumultuous convention was a series of reforms that were put in place in the procedure to nominate presidential candidates. The emphasis was to give more weight to the popular vote and reduce the salience of political deals in smoke-filled back rooms. As we look to this year8217;s convention, those reforms were clearly not enough.
Denver 2008
If the race between Obama and Clinton remains tight, a number of procedural and political disputes are likely to cast a shadow over the Democratic Convention in Denver, Colorado at the end of August.
For one, the role of 796 super delegates, elected officials and party functionaries, forming nearly 20 per cent of the Democratic National Convention in August, will become crucial. The super delegate system was created to give the party establishment a measure of influence at the convention.
If the super delegates tilt the balance in favour of a candidate, who has come narrowly second in the primaries, we can bet on political mayhem at Denver.
A second problem arises from the dispute over the delegations from two large states, Florida and Michigan. In order to punish the state units of the Democratic Party that advanced the primaries without authorisation from the national headquarters, the central leadership has ruled that these two states will not be represented at the national convention.
While Obama decided not to contest in these two primaries, Clinton did and won. Any decision to seat these delegates will be seen as a favour for Clinton and draw the wrath of the Obama camp. A refusal to accept delegates from these states, however, could cost the Democrats a lot of votes in these two important states in November.
It is not for nothing that many Republicans believe that a naturally fractious Democratic party is their secret weapon.
The writer is professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohanntu.edu.sg
