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This is an archive article published on December 21, 2003

Cross-border terror tap is now a trickle

For the first time in the last three years, this November, the number of militants sneaking across the Indo-Pak border came down to a double...

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For the first time in the last three years, this November, the number of militants sneaking across the Indo-Pak border came down to a double-digit figure. The number has further come down in December—but what has particularly been noted is that there hasn’t been a single infiltration attempt across the Line of Control since the ceasefire came into effect on November 26.

These numbers, collated by the National Security Council Secretariat after inputs from the Intelligence Bureau, Military Intelligence and the Border Security Force, have reinforced the ‘‘warmth’’ this winter as both sides prepare for the Saarc summit in the first week of the new year.

There is one intelligence report about 14 militants infiltrating south of Pir Panjal in December but this hasn’t been corroborated yet, sources in the Government told The Sunday Express.

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Sceptics in the establishment attribute this dip in infiltration to the onset of winter, but the numbers tell a different story—if you compare them with previous years’.

Only 67 persons infiltrated across the LoC in November, 2003. This is in contrast to the in-filtration figure of 127 in November 2002 and 182 in November 2001.

Story’s similar for October. While 120 infiltrated in October 2003, the figures for the same month in 2002 is 149 and 226 in 2001.

Diplomats in Delhi admit that although the key militant camps in PoK have not been dismantled—as per India’s consistent demand—Islamabad has taken steps to control infiltration. And that the Pak Army has removed some militant launching pads along the LoC.

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Cross-border infiltration and ceasefire were the main topics of discussion during the CCS yesterday.

Although the point that President Pervez Musharraf has virtually turned off the militant tap to shore up his credibility was taken note of, one signal from the CCS was that New Delhi will engage in a ‘‘bilateral contact’’ with the Pak leadership during the summit. What form it will take isn’t clear yet but one thing is: the government is careful to avoid any bells and whistles this time around.

Sources said expectation levels will be calibrated in the run-up to the summit ensuring that they are not blown out of proportion.

With General Musharraf saying that Pakistan had ‘‘left aside’’ the United Nations resolutions (demanding a plebiscite in Kashmir)—a stand which Washington has endorsed—New Delhi is well aware that it needs to build on this ‘‘positive atmosphere’’ during the summit.

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The reality check to all this has come from militants resisting the ceasefire and the on-going India-Pakistan thaw. The total number of violent incidents inside J-K have not declined. In November, there were 209 violent incidents as compared to 208 in October and 271 in August this year.

The official assessment is that these incidents are an indicator that militants want to stall—even derail—any progress.

The number of militants killed by security forces has also gone down with 126 gunned down in November as compared to 202 in September.

Even the military establishment here acknowledges that there is improvement on the infiltration front as it is reflected in the total number of security forces personnel killed during counter-insurgency operations.

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But officials add a caveat by saying that they would be convinced of Pakistani intentions if such an atmosphere continues after the SAARC summit is over.

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