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Critical talks

Agreement on a date for the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan to meet comes almost as an anticlimax to the booming guns on the bord...

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Agreement on a date for the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan to meet comes almost as an anticlimax to the booming guns on the border and the political crosstalk in the two capitals over the last couple of weeks. Nevertheless there is much at stake on June 12 and expectations will be high when Jaswant Singh and Sartaj Aziz get to grips with Kargil. As extraordinary as it might seem for Indian and Pakistani leaders to be talking in the midst of a border war, it has come about because, at root, both governments recognise their responsibilities to contain and wind down the conflict in the interests of the two countries. Beyond that there is a wide chasm. India8217;s objective in the dialogue, as the Vajpayee government has made abundantly clear in the last few days, is to confirm how Pakistani aggression will be vacated. Aziz, according to what was said in Islamabad, has a more open-ended agenda and is looking to 8220;defuse tension8221;.

Islamabad knows all the options it might have hoped to explore in thedialogue with India have been foreclosed. The Vajpayee government has said it will not offer a ceasefire, renegotiate the LoC or allow the Pakistan government to dodge its responsibility for the incursions. There is one point to be discussed and one only, the vacation of aggression. That Nawaz Sharif has agreed to send Aziz to New Delhi is significant. He is under pressure to show the world that he is committed to the diplomatic process. It is becoming clearer by the day that India8217;s position on the conflict is accepted as correct by the major powers. US and Russian spokespersons have gone further than the anodyne formula of calling on both sides to observe restraint and are specifically asking Pakistan to respect the Line of Control. Bruce Riedel, senior adviser to President Bill Clinton has said infiltrators from the Pakistani side of the LoC must go back. Russia8217;s deputy foreign minister told Pakistan8217;s ambassador in Moscow that Pakistan must pull back the armed infiltrators.

The message is loud andclear that Pakistan has violated the Simla agreement and a well-demarcated border. Its hope of internationalising the Kashmir issue is patently fading. Its weak economic condition compels it to be sensitive to those who control the purse-strings of the IMF and World Bank. Islamabad has been left little choice therefore but to return to the bilateral process to finesse its way out of its Kargil morass. The question is how. Although Nawaz Sharif has concentrated a great deal of power in his office, he has nevertheless to be wary of public opinion which in any conflict, right or wrong, is bound to be sympathetic towards the Pakistani army. At the first sign of weakness, Sharif will have to contend with the political mischief of fundamentalist political groups and opponents in the military and intelligence establishment. It is evident that he is looking for a way out of his quandary through talks with India. It is evident too that the test of diplomatic skills will be moving Islamabad from its publicly statedposition on the border war to something resembling sanity and the reality.

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