A fortnight from now, a summit of the Movement of Non-Aligned Countries (NAM) is scheduled. The planned aggression on the sovereign state of Iraq by a United States which seems drunk on its military technology ought to be the single most important item on the agenda of the movement. However, the chances of anything significant happening in this regard are remote. In the past few crucial weeks at the UN, it is France and Germany, backed to some extent by Russia and China, that are standing up to the black will of America. NAM is both muted and divided. Instead of voicing resistance to the relentless quest for dominance which animates the warmongers of Washington, the entire Indian political establishment is pursing its lips.The prime minister has counseled restraint on the “superpowers”. There are no “superpowers”. There is only one. And it is making it clear to all and sundry that the rules which restrain the rest of us is a law for the lesser breed. Thus, what we are faced with is a choice between two alternative world orders: one in which the US decides what is good for all of us and, accordingly, rewards those who fall in line and punishes the dissenters; the other which, in accord with the vision of the UN charter, respects and promotes the equality and sovereignty of nations. Foreign policy is — or ought to be — about making this essential strategic choice. When foreign policy is reduced to pragmatism without principle, summed up in the view that our foreign office should not be “anti-American” but “pro-India”, the pursuit of tactical advantage overtakes the larger national interest. There are times when to be anti-American is to be pro-India. This is one of them.What, after all, is the hurry? There is no threat from Baghdad to deploy any weapon of mass destruction (WMD). Indeed, Saddam Hussein denies quite convincingly that he has any WMD. And while Washington and London insist they have the evidence, they are being remarkably coy about disclosing what they know. If they do know, then why do they not let Hans Blix and his inspectors know? The real reason Washington refuses to give the inspectors the time they say they need is the apprehension that if the inspectors get that time, they might well give the Saddam regime a clean chit. What excuse will Washington then be left with to pursue its real goal, which is not Saddam at all but imposing an American order on the Middle East, with Israel as the key-stone of the new architecture?Should India approve of the Middle East being rearranged in Washington or New York? It is not for America but for Iraq to keep or overthrow their regime; it is for the Arabs to determine the Arab order; it is for Asia to decide Asia’s destiny. This cannot and should not be done by external imposition. The Romans tried to impose their order on West Asia. They failed. The Sassanid dynasty tried. They were driven back to Iran. The Ottomans then sought to impose themselves on the sands of Arabia. They did not last. Then came the turn of the Brits and the French. Suez undid them. Bush today stands like Tamerlane at the gates of Baghdad. He might win a military victory. But if he thinks that will pave the way to his rearranging the Arab world, he is mistaken. The Arabs are not about to exchange a caliph in Istanbul for a caliph in Washington.The threat to Bush’s grand design comes from two sources: Arab assertion and Arab anger. While the Brits and French were driven from the Middle East nearly half a century ago, the Americans found haven in the Shah’s Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Ayatollah Khomeini, a quarter century ago, put an end to American pretensions in Iran. The US teamed up with the same Saddam Hussein they now loathe to bring down the Ayatollah. They failed. Miserably. And not all their huffing and puffing has let them into Iran again. Now, Saudi Arabia is stirring. It is not revolution but a new self-awareness that is coming into its own, a nationalism of the kind which swept over much of Asia in the 20th century but is coming to consciousness in the kingdom only in the 21st. The Americans had no difficulty establishing military bases in Saudi Arabia to launch Operation Desert Storm. This time round, only Qatar in all of Arabia is letting the Americans in. Saddam in 1990-91 was a threat to Arab sovereignty. Today, the threat to Arab sovereignty comes not from Baghdad but Washington.The second danger for Bush, although he appears not to see it, is that overwhelming force of the kind now being assembled to humble Iraq leaves angry Arabs with no choice but terrorism to answer force with force. The Arabs, alas, have no Gandhi to persuade them to non-violent resistance. Thus, Bush is provoking precisely what he says he is committed to destroy: international, cross-border terrorism. Let it not be forgotten that Osama bin Laden turned from being a CIA agent into Bush’s devil only after and because the Americans usurped the Holy Land to wage war on Iraq. The obscene spectacle of armadas of warships and fleets of deadly aircraft polluting the Indian Ocean might warm the cockles of those who enjoy watching TV wars; suffering the real war only spawns the terrorists who would rather wreck civilisation than be wrecked in the name of civilisation. The US does not seem to understand that this is not the Wild West but the Wilder East.It is ridiculous to think only punks demonstrating in minus 10 degrees temperature are opposed to this wholly unnecessary and uncalled for war. Millions of right-thinking Americans are protesting this evil folly; millions more in Europe are adding their voices to the protest. Governments in Europe, particularly those of Germany and France, are in the forefront of denying Washington the right it demands to wage war at will on enemies of its choice. India’s foreign policy should be to orient the attention of NAM to these forces of peace.The visit of the French prime minister to New Delhi on the eve of the NAM summit is, therefore, particularly welcome. But I fear the acolytes of the Jaswant Singh school of thought will ensure we lose this golden opportunity too.E-mail the Author
