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This is an archive article published on October 3, 1999

Corporate earnings to rise 24 pc

MUMBAI, OCT 2: Corporate India is well on its way to strong earnings growth in the current financial year following an upturn in cyclical...

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MUMBAI, OCT 2: Corporate India is well on its way to strong earnings growth in the current financial year following an upturn in cyclical industries after three years of slowdown, analysts said on Thursday.

Participants in a Reuters poll of the top-30 companies in the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange forecast earnings to rise by an average of 23.6 per cent in 1999/2000. The average growth in profits of the same companies in 1998/99 (April-March) was a negative 4.5 per cent. "We are looking at an economic recovery mainly led by volume growth," said Ketan Desai, research head at Nucleus Securities, one of the 12 brokerages which participated in the poll. Restructuring of businesses, tighter control on costs and technology upgrading undertaken by companies during the slowdown were now helping the firms. "Operational efficiencies are the main drivers of margins — not price increases," Desai said.

India’s GDP grew 5.5 per cent in the first quarter of 1999/2000 from the same period last year. "Thefirst quarter data confirms India is in the midst of a cyclical turnaround," Vasan Shridharan, senior treasury economist at Standard Chartered Bank, told Reuters. Shankar Sharma, director at First Global Stockbroking, said he expected the earnings numbers to exceed the forecasts. "We think you will see probably 25 to 27 per cent for these companies and for a broader range of firms you might even see something like 30 % earnings growth numbers," he said.

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The poll forecast said Tata Engineering and Locomotive Company Ltd (TELCO) to post 50.6 per cent growth in net profit at Rs 1.47 billion in the year ending March 31, 2000. Sharma said he expected a 100 per cent profit growth for TELCO, India’s largest truck maker. It also makes cars.

Analysts predicted a strong rebound for cement companies. Associated Cement Companies Ltd’s net profit was expected to jump 60.3 per cent to Rs 911.1 million in the year ending March 31, 2000, on a 9.6 per cent rise in sales.

Profits of diversified firm Grasim Industries Ltdwere seen up 47.9 per cent at Rs 240 crore. Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd, which managed to maintain good earnings growth during the lean years, is forecast to post 21 per cent higher profits at Rs 180 crore.

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