Coalition calculus

The Congress’s discomfiture over the NCP’s support to Rahul Bajaj’s candidature for a Rajya Sabha by-election is understandable. The industrialist is counting on BJP-Shiv Sena votes as well to secure the election. And the bulk of Congress’s claim to being at the heart of the UPA coalition is its purported mission to keep the “communal” BJP out of power. So, it cannot merely shrug off this conduct of an ally — in the state and at the Centre — as the internal matter of the NCP. Let this pass, and the coalitional basis of the UPA comes into question. Calling the NCP’s bluff, however, may not be that simple either. Strangely, in this dilemma the Congress finds closest resemblance to the BJP. This dilemma must instil a cautionary message on how to govern for both parties.

For the immediate future at least, there is little chance of the Congress or the BJP coming to power in the Centre on their own. Indeed, even in the states, each party finds itself part of ever more coalitions. The two national parties are drawn to grand ideological themes to assert the glue that binds their allies. But take the ease with which — before this NCP dalliance — those allies have switched partners, and it’s clear that the main attraction the Congress and BJP hold is their relative winning potential. Be it the DMK (a party with strong ideological views but smooth in its transitions from the United Front to the NDA to the UPA) or the Janata Dal-S (the “secular” of the S having nothing to do with its bargaining power vis-a-vis the Congress or the BJP in Bangalore), they all have an eye on the fastest track to power.

In the two terms of the BJP and now two years of the Congress in New Delhi, a common refrain for governance lite is that the allies are holding back the parties leading the coalition. The NCP — which in any case was rumoured to have been considered by the BJP-Sena for a possible poll tie-up a couple of years ago — has underlined the infidelity of those very allies. For the Congress and the BJP, the solution is obvious: just govern. Govern well, be winnable, and the allies will follow.