Cluelessness as policy

Amidst the euphoria over improving India-China relations, some disconcerting developments in the relationship between China and Bangladesh are being ignored. Premier Wen Jiabao signed an agreement with Bangladesh on nuclear cooperation. The agreement states that this is for civilian purposes. But the Chinese record on proliferation should make us wary. Bangladesh’s efforts to go for nuclear power are puzzling, especially since it is a power surplus country. This agreement should therefore be cause for concern.

The agreement raises three questions. Why has the Indian government not even raised the matter in public with China? Even if we may not be able to dissuade the Chinese from fishing in nuclear waters, it is important to send a signal to Beijing that there is reason for India to be concerned about the kind of presence China is seeking in the region. While improving ties with China should be a priority, this cannot blind us to our strategic concerns. If China and the US can express their disagreements and reservations about other countries policies forcefully, so should we. Second, it raises profound questions about our Bangladesh policy. Bangladesh will, like any nation, play the big powers against each other. But has India really lost Bangladesh? Should we have offered Bangladesh nuclear cooperation (promised to them in ’71) to preempt Chinese moves? Bangladesh is playing our rivals against us and we seem clueless on how to handle the potential threat. The third question it raises is whether India should just sit back and let China encircle it. The Chinese are a big presence in the strategic and economic affairs of South Asia, true. But can we take steps to ensure that this does not turn the balance of power in the region against India’s interests?

The spread of nuclear technology to Bangladesh, even if the prospects of weaponisation are slim, raises a profound question about South Asia’s nuclear doctrine. While India and Pakistan are desperately trying to be admitted as members of the nuclear club, pretending that they are ready to play with the big boys, do they have the means of ensuring that the rest of South Asia does not in the future become a source of nuclear instability? It is a mark of our myopia that we are letting events such as the China Bangladesh nuclear cooperation slip by without thought or comment.